INDColts
-
7
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
034
HOUTexans
-
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
0
0
7
7
Texans
17
11
0
0
28
Spread
-9
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
236
384
Total Plays
50
66
Yards / Play
4.7
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.60
-0.03
Passing Yards
172
217
Comp/Att
16/31(52%)
17/24(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
9.0
EPA / Pass
-0.36
+0.15
Rushing Yards
64
167
Rush Attempts
16
41
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.44
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
26
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
11%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
1
5
3rd Down Attempts
9
11
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-10.62
-16.82
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-25
-3
Sack EPA
-8.93
-1.18
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
60
30
Penalty EPA
-6.06
-3.12
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model73.0%
Spread Pick
Colts+9.0
Expected Value
+16.7%
Cover Probability
59.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+56
Home nfelo
1,527
Away nfelo
1,557
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+41.6
Home QB Adjustment
+8.2
Away QB Adjustment
-33.4
Market Regression
+107.7
Final Difference
173.1
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
K. Collins
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-33.4
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+8.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
4
Yards / Game
30
2
Passing Yards / Game
27
11
Rushing Yards / Game
26
2
EPA
EPA / Play
31
2
EPA / Pass
28
1
EPA / Rush
30
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
24
Interceptions / Game
13
12
Fumbles / Game
31
22
Turnover EPA / Game
5
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
13
4th Down Efficiency
20
10
RZ Efficiency
27
11
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
28
Yards / Game
13
24
Passing Yards / Game
25
20
Rushing Yards / Game
2
29
EPA
EPA / Play
14
25
EPA / Pass
10
29
EPA / Rush
11
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
18
Interceptions / Game
4
31
Fumbles / Game
20
18
Turnover EPA / Game
20
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
31
4th Down Efficiency
30
23
RZ Efficiency
22
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Texans
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U