INDColts
2-2
27
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
020
HOUTexans
1-3
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
10
3
7
7
27
Texans
0
10
7
3
20
Spread
+5
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
323
444
Total Plays
59
70
Yards / Play
5.5
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.27
+0.07
Passing Yards
--
362
Comp/Att
18/29(62%)
31/41(76%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.8
EPA / Pass
+0.37
+0.36
Rushing Yards
110
82
Rush Attempts
30
28
Yards / Rush
3.7
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
24
Passing 1st downs
10
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
6
2
3rd Down %
27%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
75%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-9.14
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
-0.77
Penalties
7
13
Penalty Yards
65
125
Penalty EPA
-6.48
-15.72
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-5.0
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model63.5%
Spread Pick
Colts+5.0
Expected Value
+4.1%
Cover Probability
54.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+52
Home nfelo
1,451
Away nfelo
1,499
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+54.2
Home QB Adjustment
+2.7
Away QB Adjustment
-51.5
Market Regression
+76.5
Final Difference
96.2
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-51.5
R. Mallett
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
+2.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
10
Yards / Game
28
3
Passing Yards / Game
20
4
Rushing Yards / Game
29
11
EPA
EPA / Play
27
3
EPA / Pass
25
4
EPA / Rush
32
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
17
Interceptions / Game
28
14
Fumbles / Game
15
22
Turnover EPA / Game
3
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
1
4th Down Efficiency
11
24
RZ Efficiency
20
19
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
25
Yards / Game
20
27
Passing Yards / Game
10
23
Rushing Yards / Game
16
25
EPA
EPA / Play
28
14
EPA / Pass
26
18
EPA / Rush
22
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
15
Interceptions / Game
21
6
Fumbles / Game
20
15
Turnover EPA / Game
17
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
19
4th Down Efficiency
32
30
RZ Efficiency
14
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
6-4
SU
3-6-1
ATS
1-8-1
O/U
Texans
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U