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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ texans week 5, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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IND logo
INDColts
2-2
27
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
20
HOUTexans
1-3
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
10
3
7
7
27
Texans
0
10
7
3
20

Spread

IND logo
+5

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
323
444
Total Plays
59
70
Yards / Play
5.5
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.27
+0.07
Passing Yards
--
362
Comp/Att
18/29(62%)
31/41(76%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.8
EPA / Pass
+0.37
+0.36
Rushing Yards
110
82
Rush Attempts
30
28
Yards / Rush
3.7
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
22
24
Passing 1st downs
10
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
6
2
3rd Down %
27%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
75%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-9.14
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
-0.77
Penalties
7
13
Penalty Yards
65
125
Penalty EPA
-6.48
-15.72

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-5.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market67.1%
Model65.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+56
Home nfelo
1,451
Away nfelo
1,495
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+54.2
Home QB Adjustment
+2.7
Away QB Adjustment
-51.5
Market Regression
+83.2
Final Difference
109.9
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

M. Hasselbeck headshot

M. Hasselbeck

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-51.5
Value
Ptile
12/11
-4.5
21
12/18
-3.4
28
12/24
-0.1
52
01/01
4.0
77
10/07
-2.7
32
10/11
-1.6
38
10/21
-0.6
46
10/28
2.3
64
11/04
-0.6
46
10/04
-0.5
48
R. Mallett headshot

R. Mallett

Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
+2.7
Value
Ptile
11/16
2.0
65
11/23
-7.0
11
09/20
-1.6
39
09/27
-1.7
38
10/04
-6.8
8

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Colts logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
23
10
Yards / Game
28
3
Passing Yards / Game
20
4
Rushing Yards / Game
29
11

EPA

EPA / Play
27
3
EPA / Pass
25
4
EPA / Rush
32
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
17
Interceptions / Game
28
14
Fumbles / Game
15
22
Turnover EPA / Game
3
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
1
4th Down Efficiency
11
24
RZ Efficiency
20
19
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Texans logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
26
25
Yards / Game
20
27
Passing Yards / Game
10
23
Rushing Yards / Game
16
25

EPA

EPA / Play
28
14
EPA / Pass
26
18
EPA / Rush
22
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
15
Interceptions / Game
21
6
Fumbles / Game
20
15
Turnover EPA / Game
17
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
19
4th Down Efficiency
32
30
RZ Efficiency
14
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

6-4
SU
3-6-1
ATS
1-8-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/14
7
W
P
U
12/21
-35
L
L
U
12/28
17
W
W
U
01/04
16
W
W
U
01/11
11
W
W
U
01/18
-38
L
L
P
09/13
-13
L
L
U
09/21
-13
L
L
U
09/27
2
W
L
O
10/04
3
W
L
U
HOU logo

Texans

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
-9
L
L
U
11/30
24
W
W
O
12/07
14
W
W
U
12/14
-7
L
P
U
12/21
12
W
W
U
12/28
6
W
L
O
09/13
-7
L
L
O
09/20
-7
L
L
P
09/27
10
W
W
U
10/04
-27
L
L
O