INDColts
4-3
20
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
023
HOUTexans
5-2
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
10
0
3
7
20
Texans
3
14
3
3
23
Spread
+4.5
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
303
363
Total Plays
63
68
Yards / Play
4.8
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.02
Passing Yards
140
267
Comp/Att
10/32(31%)
25/37(68%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
7.2
EPA / Pass
-0.25
+0.15
Rushing Yards
163
96
Rush Attempts
26
29
Yards / Rush
6.3
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.35
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
21
Passing 1st downs
7
15
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
15%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.56
-5.44
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-35
-18
Sack EPA
-5.80
-4.01
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
57
30
Penalty EPA
-5.25
-1.85
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+138
Home nfelo
1,576
Away nfelo
1,469
Home Field
+16.3
Base HFA
+44.0
Divisional Adj
-19.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.9
Net QB Adjustment
+14.7
Home QB Adjustment
-1.6
Away QB Adjustment
-16.3
Market Regression
-25.4
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
A. Richardson
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-16.3
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
-1.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
10
Yards / Game
13
2
Passing Yards / Game
24
11
Rushing Yards / Game
8
9
EPA
EPA / Play
23
6
EPA / Pass
23
3
EPA / Rush
17
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
3
Interceptions / Game
29
2
Fumbles / Game
22
17
Turnover EPA / Game
4
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
3
4th Down Efficiency
11
23
RZ Efficiency
23
21
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
24
Yards / Game
17
29
Passing Yards / Game
11
12
Rushing Yards / Game
13
23
EPA
EPA / Play
22
15
EPA / Pass
22
27
EPA / Rush
26
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
25
Interceptions / Game
16
5
Fumbles / Game
16
11
Turnover EPA / Game
21
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
29
4th Down Efficiency
10
11
RZ Efficiency
28
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Texans
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U