INDColts
5-2
27
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
024
HOUTexans
2-5
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
3
9
15
27
Texans
14
7
3
0
24
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
316
483
Total Plays
60
68
Yards / Play
5.3
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.02
Passing Yards
247
340
Comp/Att
18/42(43%)
20/34(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
10.0
EPA / Pass
+0.16
+0.45
Rushing Yards
69
143
Rush Attempts
14
33
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
22
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
31%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-26
-10
Sack EPA
-6.18
-2.01
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
--
86
Penalty EPA
--
-7.47
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model54.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-76
Home nfelo
1,537
Away nfelo
1,508
Home Field
+36.6
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-141.0
Home QB Adjustment
-125.6
Away QB Adjustment
+15.4
Market Regression
+6.4
Final Difference
-28.2
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+15.4
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-125.6
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
25
Yards / Game
11
6
Passing Yards / Game
11
10
Rushing Yards / Game
21
23
EPA
EPA / Play
10
19
EPA / Pass
16
28
EPA / Rush
6
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
17
Interceptions / Game
17
32
Fumbles / Game
2
31
Turnover EPA / Game
22
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
7
4th Down Efficiency
22
8
RZ Efficiency
10
32
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
14
Yards / Game
13
22
Passing Yards / Game
6
21
Rushing Yards / Game
20
30
EPA
EPA / Play
30
20
EPA / Pass
29
21
EPA / Rush
22
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
27
Interceptions / Game
28
21
Fumbles / Game
13
14
Turnover EPA / Game
3
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
23
4th Down Efficiency
26
18
RZ Efficiency
26
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Texans
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U