INDColts
10-0
35
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
027
HOUTexans
5-5
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
7
7
15
29
Texans
14
6
0
7
27
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
342
396
Total Plays
60
68
Yards / Play
5.7
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.05
Passing Yards
228
274
Comp/Att
27/35(77%)
31/42(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.15
+0.00
Rushing Yards
114
122
Rush Attempts
23
24
Yards / Rush
5.0
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.24
+0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
27
Passing 1st downs
16
18
Rushing 1st downs
8
9
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
33%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
6
8
Red Zone %
75%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.72
-14.34
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-16
-10
Sack EPA
-3.31
-5.46
Penalties
3
10
Penalty Yards
--
129
Penalty EPA
--
-6.88
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-88
Home nfelo
1,526
Away nfelo
1,660
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+1.4
Home QB Adjustment
+19.2
Away QB Adjustment
+17.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+17.8
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+19.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
16
Yards / Game
8
14
Passing Yards / Game
28
16
Rushing Yards / Game
32
10
EPA
EPA / Play
3
16
EPA / Pass
4
11
EPA / Rush
27
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
27
Interceptions / Game
21
21
Fumbles / Game
1
20
Turnover EPA / Game
26
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
20
4th Down Efficiency
13
7
RZ Efficiency
2
30
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
7
Yards / Game
5
18
Passing Yards / Game
10
17
Rushing Yards / Game
30
20
EPA
EPA / Play
9
17
EPA / Pass
6
16
EPA / Rush
29
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
31
Interceptions / Game
18
15
Fumbles / Game
25
22
Turnover EPA / Game
10
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
30
4th Down Efficiency
4
2
RZ Efficiency
12
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
10-0
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Texans
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U