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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ texans week 18, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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IND logo
INDColts
8-8
30
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
38
HOUTexans
11-5
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
10
7
10
3
30
Texans
6
17
3
6
32

Spread

IND logo
+9.5

Total

OVER
37.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
354
339
Total Plays
64
64
Yards / Play
5.5
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.12
Passing Yards
278
--
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
17/32(53%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
--
EPA / Pass
-0.05
-0.06
Rushing Yards
76
134
Rush Attempts
28
32
Yards / Rush
2.7
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.11
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
19
22
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
53%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-17.06
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-8
--
Sack EPA
-6.39
--
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
81
77
Penalty EPA
-6.93
-7.56

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+208
Home nfelo
1,579
Away nfelo
1,458
Home Field
+16.4
Base HFA
+44.5
Divisional Adj
-20.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.0
Net QB Adjustment
+71.2
Home QB Adjustment
+4.8
Away QB Adjustment
-66.4
Market Regression
-10.5
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5

Quarterbacks

R. Leonard headshot

R. Leonard

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-66.4
No recent game data available
C. Stroud headshot

C. Stroud

Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
+4.8
Value
Ptile
09/28
3.0
73
10/05
9.6
97
10/20
-5.0
17
10/26
7.5
93
11/02
-4.3
22
11/30
-2.9
30
12/07
-4.0
24
12/14
5.5
86
12/21
-0.3
47
12/27
-0.2
50

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Colts logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
7
3
Yards / Game
8
1
Passing Yards / Game
12
16
Rushing Yards / Game
17
2

EPA

EPA / Play
5
1
EPA / Pass
12
1
EPA / Rush
2
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
22
Interceptions / Game
26
4
Fumbles / Game
18
4
Turnover EPA / Game
10
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
2
4th Down Efficiency
4
9
RZ Efficiency
6
13
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Texans logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
13
21
Yards / Game
18
23
Passing Yards / Game
26
28
Rushing Yards / Game
22
7

EPA

EPA / Play
24
20
EPA / Pass
16
18
EPA / Rush
30
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
25
Interceptions / Game
21
11
Fumbles / Game
7
17
Turnover EPA / Game
22
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
24
4th Down Efficiency
15
14
RZ Efficiency
29
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
14
W
W
O
10/26
24
W
W
O
11/02
-7
L
L
U
11/09
6
W
L
O
11/23
-3
L
W
U
11/30
-4
L
L
U
12/07
-17
L
L
O
12/14
-2
L
W
U
12/22
-21
L
L
O
12/28
-6
L
L
U
HOU logo

Texans

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/26
11
W
W
U
11/02
-3
L
L
U
11/09
7
W
W
O
11/16
3
W
L
U
11/20
4
W
W
U
11/30
4
W
W
U
12/07
10
W
W
U
12/14
20
W
W
O
12/21
2
W
L
O
12/27
4
W
W
U