nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ texans week 18, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

IND logo
INDColts
8-8
+10.5
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
-10.5
HOUTexans
11-5
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5

Win Probability

Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+213
Home nfelo
1,579
Away nfelo
1,461
Home Field
+16.4
Base HFA
+44.5
Divisional Adj
-20.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.0
Net QB Adjustment
+79.2
Home QB Adjustment
+4.8
Away QB Adjustment
-74.5
Market Regression
+12.0
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5

Quarterbacks

Quarterback Data Not Available
C. Stroud headshot

C. Stroud

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.8
Value
Ptile
09/28
3.0
73
10/05
9.5
97
10/20
-5.0
17
10/26
7.4
93
11/02
-4.3
21
11/30
-2.9
30
12/07
-4.1
23
12/14
5.5
86
12/21
-0.4
47
12/27
-0.2
49

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Colts logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
7
1
Yards / Game
11
1
Passing Yards / Game
15
14
Rushing Yards / Game
14
4

EPA

EPA / Play
7
1
EPA / Pass
12
1
EPA / Rush
2
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
22
Interceptions / Game
23
4
Fumbles / Game
6
16
Turnover EPA / Game
16
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
4
4th Down Efficiency
6
7
RZ Efficiency
3
17
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Texans logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
16
19
Yards / Game
20
24
Passing Yards / Game
24
32
Rushing Yards / Game
24
5

EPA

EPA / Play
23
17
EPA / Pass
14
19
EPA / Rush
30
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
25
Interceptions / Game
9
8
Fumbles / Game
3
12
Turnover EPA / Game
31
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
27
4th Down Efficiency
16
14
RZ Efficiency
30
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
14
W
W
O
10/26
24
W
W
O
11/02
-7
L
L
U
11/09
6
W
L
O
11/23
-3
L
W
U
11/30
-4
L
L
U
12/07
-17
L
L
O
12/14
-2
L
W
U
12/22
-21
L
L
O
12/28
-6
L
L
U
HOU logo

Texans

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/26
11
W
W
U
11/02
-3
L
L
U
11/09
7
W
W
O
11/16
3
W
L
U
11/20
4
W
W
U
11/30
4
W
W
U
12/07
10
W
W
U
12/14
20
W
W
O
12/21
2
W
L
O
12/27
4
W
W
U