INDColts
4-0
31
TBD
Nissan Stadium
57°F
4 mph
9
TENTitans
0-4
TBD
Nissan Stadium
57°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
14
7
3
31
Titans
6
3
0
0
9
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
367
245
Total Plays
67
57
Yards / Play
5.5
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.20
-0.20
Passing Yards
--
155
Comp/Att
36/44(82%)
19/35(54%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.4
EPA / Pass
+0.45
-0.41
Rushing Yards
58
90
Rush Attempts
23
21
Yards / Rush
2.5
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
12
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
57%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
75%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-5.56
-4.26
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-9
Sack EPA
--
-2.00
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
48
89
Penalty EPA
-4.96
-8.51
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model59.1%
Spread Pick
Titans+4.0
Expected Value
+10.2%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-15
Home nfelo
1,567
Away nfelo
1,621
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-27.3
Home QB Adjustment
-1.7
Away QB Adjustment
+25.5
Market Regression
-17.9
Final Difference
-64.0
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+25.5
K. Collins
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-1.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
28
Yards / Game
8
27
Passing Yards / Game
28
25
Rushing Yards / Game
32
11
EPA
EPA / Play
3
27
EPA / Pass
4
26
EPA / Rush
27
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
32
Interceptions / Game
21
7
Fumbles / Game
1
28
Turnover EPA / Game
26
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
26
4th Down Efficiency
13
31
RZ Efficiency
2
27
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
7
Yards / Game
13
18
Passing Yards / Game
31
17
Rushing Yards / Game
2
20
EPA
EPA / Play
13
17
EPA / Pass
17
16
EPA / Rush
2
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
31
Interceptions / Game
14
15
Fumbles / Game
29
22
Turnover EPA / Game
22
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
30
4th Down Efficiency
12
2
RZ Efficiency
9
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
9-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
2-2-6
O/U
Titans
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-1-6
O/U