INDColts
6-5
31
TBD
Nissan Stadium
53°F
13 mph
28
TENTitans
4-7
TBD
Nissan Stadium
53°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Colts
7
6
3
3
6
25
Titans
10
7
0
6
3
26
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
355
381
Total Plays
69
81
Yards / Play
5.1
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.07
Passing Yards
300
204
Comp/Att
26/43(60%)
16/33(48%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.00
Rushing Yards
55
177
Rush Attempts
23
42
Yards / Rush
2.4
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
25
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
12
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
21%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
20%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-4.46
-1.55
Sacks
3
6
Sack Yards
-12
-20
Sack EPA
-7.69
-3.02
Penalties
4
9
Penalty Yards
--
74
Penalty EPA
--
-9.21
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-10
Home nfelo
1,450
Away nfelo
1,448
Home Field
+32.4
Base HFA
+45.1
Divisional Adj
-20.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.7
Time Adj
-8.1
Net QB Adjustment
-44.5
Home QB Adjustment
-38.1
Away QB Adjustment
+6.4
Market Regression
-31.3
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
+6.4
W. Levis
Proj. Value
-4.2
Team Elo Adj
-38.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
15
Yards / Game
14
17
Passing Yards / Game
14
19
Rushing Yards / Game
10
14
EPA
EPA / Play
17
28
EPA / Pass
16
30
EPA / Rush
21
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
4
Interceptions / Game
6
32
Fumbles / Game
16
13
Turnover EPA / Game
19
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
18
4th Down Efficiency
16
26
RZ Efficiency
23
1
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
28
Yards / Game
28
24
Passing Yards / Game
18
25
Rushing Yards / Game
18
24
EPA
EPA / Play
16
19
EPA / Pass
21
15
EPA / Rush
13
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
18
Interceptions / Game
10
14
Fumbles / Game
6
8
Turnover EPA / Game
29
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
11
4th Down Efficiency
11
30
RZ Efficiency
28
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Titans
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U