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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ titans week 13, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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IND logo
INDColts
6-5
31
TBD
Nissan Stadium
53°F
13 mph
28
TENTitans
4-7
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
53°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Colts
7
6
3
3
6
25
Titans
10
7
0
6
3
26

Spread

IND logo
-1

Total

OVER
42

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
355
381
Total Plays
69
81
Yards / Play
5.1
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.07
Passing Yards
300
204
Comp/Att
26/43(60%)
16/33(48%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.00
Rushing Yards
55
177
Rush Attempts
23
42
Yards / Rush
2.4
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
19
25
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
12
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
21%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
20%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-4.46
-1.55
Sacks
3
6
Sack Yards
-12
-20
Sack EPA
-7.69
-3.02
Penalties
4
9
Penalty Yards
--
74
Penalty EPA
--
-9.21

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-9
Home nfelo
1,450
Away nfelo
1,446
Home Field
+32.4
Base HFA
+45.0
Divisional Adj
-20.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.7
Time Adj
-8.1
Net QB Adjustment
-44.8
Home QB Adjustment
-37.9
Away QB Adjustment
+6.9
Market Regression
-31.3
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

G. Minshew headshot

G. Minshew

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+6.9
Value
Ptile
01/08
-2.7
33
12/24
6.0
89
01/01
-5.5
14
09/24
-3.5
26
10/15
-5.5
16
10/22
6.9
90
10/29
-1.4
40
11/05
-2.2
34
11/12
-2.3
33
11/26
-2.8
31
W. Levis headshot

W. Levis

Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-37.9
Value
Ptile
10/29
3.6
73
11/02
-5.2
18
11/12
-10.4
2
11/19
-1.0
44
11/26
-2.0
35

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Colts logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
11
15
Yards / Game
14
17
Passing Yards / Game
14
19
Rushing Yards / Game
10
14

EPA

EPA / Play
17
28
EPA / Pass
16
30
EPA / Rush
21
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
4
Interceptions / Game
6
32
Fumbles / Game
16
13
Turnover EPA / Game
19
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
18
4th Down Efficiency
16
26
RZ Efficiency
23
1
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Titans logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
27
28
Yards / Game
28
24
Passing Yards / Game
18
25
Rushing Yards / Game
18
24

EPA

EPA / Play
16
19
EPA / Pass
21
15
EPA / Rush
13
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
18
Interceptions / Game
10
14
Fumbles / Game
6
8
Turnover EPA / Game
29
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
11
4th Down Efficiency
11
30
RZ Efficiency
28
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/17
11
W
W
O
09/24
3
W
W
U
10/01
-6
L
L
O
10/08
7
W
W
U
10/15
-17
L
L
O
10/22
-1
L
W
O
10/29
-11
L
L
O
11/05
14
W
W
U
11/12
4
W
W
U
11/26
7
W
W
O
TEN logo

Titans

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/17
3
W
W
O
09/24
-24
L
L
U
10/01
24
W
W
U
10/08
-7
L
L
U
10/15
-8
L
L
U
10/29
5
W
W
O
11/02
-4
L
L
U
11/12
-14
L
L
U
11/19
-20
L
L
O
11/26
7
W
W
U