INDColts
6-6
30
TBD
Nissan Stadium
35°F
6 mph
28
TENTitans
5-7
TBD
Nissan Stadium
35°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
14
3
6
30
Titans
0
7
7
14
28
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
399
365
Total Plays
68
64
Yards / Play
5.9
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.27
+0.19
Passing Yards
312
--
Comp/Att
25/35(71%)
28/39(72%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
--
EPA / Pass
+0.50
+0.27
Rushing Yards
87
121
Rush Attempts
32
25
Yards / Rush
2.7
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
22
Passing 1st downs
14
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
53%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-9.25
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-7
--
Sack EPA
-1.24
--
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
60
29
Penalty EPA
-4.25
-6.19
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-46
Home nfelo
1,488
Away nfelo
1,571
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-30.6
Home QB Adjustment
-36.7
Away QB Adjustment
-6.0
Market Regression
-75.7
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-6.0
K. Collins
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-36.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Colts Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
15
Yards / Game
6
26
Passing Yards / Game
8
32
Rushing Yards / Game
29
20
EPA
EPA / Play
3
21
EPA / Pass
4
22
EPA / Rush
13
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
26
Interceptions / Game
16
11
Fumbles / Game
7
31
Turnover EPA / Game
21
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
29
4th Down Efficiency
7
7
RZ Efficiency
1
3
Titans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
23
Yards / Game
28
20
Passing Yards / Game
29
15
Rushing Yards / Game
17
27
EPA
EPA / Play
14
29
EPA / Pass
16
21
EPA / Rush
28
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
31
Interceptions / Game
13
30
Fumbles / Game
28
21
Turnover EPA / Game
17
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
23
4th Down Efficiency
10
12
RZ Efficiency
10
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Colts
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Titans
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U