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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ 49ers week 12, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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WAS logo
WASCommanders
3-7
13
TBD
Levi's Stadium
62°F
9 mph
17
SF49ers
6-4
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
62°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
7
3
3
13
49ers
7
3
0
7
17

Spread

WAS logo
+9.5

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
213
312
Total Plays
52
60
Yards / Play
4.1
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.13
Passing Yards
77
246
Comp/Att
11/20(55%)
20/29(69%)
Yards / Pass
3.9
8.5
EPA / Pass
-0.74
+0.37
Rushing Yards
136
66
Rush Attempts
27
29
Yards / Rush
5.0
2.3
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.70
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
12
16
Passing 1st downs
4
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
15%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-4.58
-12.95
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-29
-10
Sack EPA
-12.10
-2.65
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
53
47
Penalty EPA
-6.50
-4.12

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+237
Home nfelo
1,612
Away nfelo
1,465
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+4.2
Home QB Adjustment
-14.1
Away QB Adjustment
-18.3
Market Regression
+19.5
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5

Quarterbacks

R. Griffin headshot

R. Griffin

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-18.3
Value
Ptile
11/03
1.8
63
11/07
4.1
78
11/17
-2.2
37
11/25
-8.6
5
12/01
3.8
76
12/08
-7.5
10
09/07
1.0
57
09/14
-4.6
22
11/02
-3.5
28
11/16
-6.0
15
C. Kaepernick headshot

C. Kaepernick

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-14.1
Value
Ptile
09/07
1.6
63
09/14
-3.4
28
09/21
7.3
89
09/28
-0.7
45
10/05
-3.1
29
10/13
10.4
97
10/19
-4.3
24
11/02
-6.5
12
11/09
-4.5
23
11/16
-1.0
43

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs 49ers Defense
Commanders logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
26
10
Yards / Game
13
5
Passing Yards / Game
9
14
Rushing Yards / Game
18
7

EPA

EPA / Play
23
18
EPA / Pass
25
15
EPA / Rush
18
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
3
Interceptions / Game
26
1
Fumbles / Game
32
25
Turnover EPA / Game
7
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
26
4th Down Efficiency
32
19
RZ Efficiency
27
28
49ers Offense vs Commanders Defense
49ers logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
25
29
Yards / Game
21
19
Passing Yards / Game
27
16
Rushing Yards / Game
4
12

EPA

EPA / Play
20
31
EPA / Pass
18
32
EPA / Rush
20
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
2
Interceptions / Game
4
28
Fumbles / Game
19
16
Turnover EPA / Game
17
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
24
4th Down Efficiency
8
24
RZ Efficiency
29
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/07
-11
L
L
U
09/14
31
W
W
O
09/21
-3
L
W
O
09/25
-31
L
L
O
10/06
-10
L
L
U
10/12
-10
L
L
O
10/19
2
W
L
U
10/27
3
W
W
U
11/02
-3
L
L
O
11/16
-20
L
L
U
SF logo

49ers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/07
11
W
W
U
09/14
-8
L
L
O
09/21
-9
L
L
U
09/28
5
W
W
U
10/05
5
W
W
U
10/13
14
W
W
O
10/19
-25
L
L
O
11/02
-3
L
L
U
11/09
3
W
W
O
11/16
6
W
W
U