WASCommanders
3-7
13
TBD
Levi's Stadium
62°F
9 mph
17
SF49ers
6-4
TBD
Levi's Stadium
62°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
7
3
3
13
49ers
7
3
0
7
17
Spread
+9.5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
213
312
Total Plays
52
60
Yards / Play
4.1
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.13
Passing Yards
77
246
Comp/Att
11/20(55%)
20/29(69%)
Yards / Pass
3.9
8.5
EPA / Pass
-0.74
+0.37
Rushing Yards
136
66
Rush Attempts
27
29
Yards / Rush
5.0
2.3
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.70
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
16
Passing 1st downs
4
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
15%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-4.58
-12.95
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-29
-10
Sack EPA
-12.10
-2.65
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
53
47
Penalty EPA
-6.50
-4.12
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+238
Home nfelo
1,615
Away nfelo
1,466
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+4.2
Home QB Adjustment
-14.1
Away QB Adjustment
-18.3
Market Regression
+19.3
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-18.3
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-14.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
10
Yards / Game
13
5
Passing Yards / Game
9
14
Rushing Yards / Game
18
7
EPA
EPA / Play
23
18
EPA / Pass
25
15
EPA / Rush
18
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
3
Interceptions / Game
26
1
Fumbles / Game
32
25
Turnover EPA / Game
7
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
26
4th Down Efficiency
32
19
RZ Efficiency
27
28
49ers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
29
Yards / Game
21
19
Passing Yards / Game
27
16
Rushing Yards / Game
4
12
EPA
EPA / Play
20
31
EPA / Pass
18
32
EPA / Rush
20
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
2
Interceptions / Game
4
28
Fumbles / Game
19
16
Turnover EPA / Game
17
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
24
4th Down Efficiency
8
24
RZ Efficiency
29
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
49ers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U