WASCommanders
7-6
20
TBD
Levi's Stadium
54°F
2 mph
37
SF49ers
10-4
TBD
Levi's Stadium
54°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
7
7
6
20
49ers
0
7
14
16
37
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
349
371
Total Plays
70
51
Yards / Play
5.0
7.3
EPA / Play
-0.19
+0.16
Passing Yards
270
218
Comp/Att
25/35(71%)
15/22(68%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
9.9
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.31
Rushing Yards
79
153
Rush Attempts
33
26
Yards / Rush
2.4
5.9
EPA / Rush
-0.49
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
14
Passing 1st downs
18
8
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
54%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
67%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.48
-3.73
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-19
-16
Sack EPA
-6.59
-5.35
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
51
25
Penalty EPA
-5.94
-3.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+177
Home nfelo
1,675
Away nfelo
1,458
Home Field
+48.6
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.4
Net QB Adjustment
-89.4
Home QB Adjustment
-99.9
Away QB Adjustment
-10.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
T. Heinicke
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-10.5
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
-99.9
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
1
Yards / Game
20
2
Passing Yards / Game
16
19
Rushing Yards / Game
12
2
EPA
EPA / Play
22
1
EPA / Pass
25
2
EPA / Rush
21
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
27
Interceptions / Game
25
2
Fumbles / Game
20
19
Turnover EPA / Game
21
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
13
4th Down Efficiency
21
16
RZ Efficiency
23
20
49ers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
8
Yards / Game
6
3
Passing Yards / Game
27
10
Rushing Yards / Game
7
11
EPA
EPA / Play
6
8
EPA / Pass
2
8
EPA / Rush
23
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
8
Interceptions / Game
3
29
Fumbles / Game
26
29
Turnover EPA / Game
31
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
1
4th Down Efficiency
29
14
RZ Efficiency
19
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
6-3-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
49ers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U