WASCommanders
3-3
17
TBD
Soldier Field
67°F
11 mph
14
CHIBears
4-2
TBD
Soldier Field
67°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
7
3
1
0
11
Bears
1
7
0
0
8
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
308
322
Total Plays
62
60
Yards / Play
5.0
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.43
-0.54
Passing Yards
187
256
Comp/Att
17/32(53%)
26/40(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
6.4
EPA / Pass
-0.37
-0.52
Rushing Yards
121
66
Rush Attempts
28
16
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
19
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
15%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
2
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
6
Interceptions
2
4
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-15.49
-30.98
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-13
-25
Sack EPA
-2.41
-6.20
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
48
51
Penalty EPA
-3.89
-15.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+65
Home nfelo
1,489
Away nfelo
1,479
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+4.1
Home QB Adjustment
+2.9
Away QB Adjustment
-1.2
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
D. McNabb
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-1.2
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
4
Yards / Game
17
10
Passing Yards / Game
4
3
Rushing Yards / Game
30
2
EPA
EPA / Play
28
1
EPA / Pass
25
5
EPA / Rush
19
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
1
Interceptions / Game
21
5
Fumbles / Game
22
7
Turnover EPA / Game
9
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
2
4th Down Efficiency
12
17
RZ Efficiency
20
14
Bears Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
22
Yards / Game
29
31
Passing Yards / Game
11
31
Rushing Yards / Game
19
25
EPA
EPA / Play
26
12
EPA / Pass
29
26
EPA / Rush
12
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
5
Interceptions / Game
30
19
Fumbles / Game
8
10
Turnover EPA / Game
7
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
8
4th Down Efficiency
28
29
RZ Efficiency
23
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
4-6
SU
4-4-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bears
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U