WASCommanders
1-1
38
TBD
Paycor Stadium
69°F
5 mph
33
CINBengals
0-2
TBD
Paycor Stadium
69°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
7
14
7
10
38
Bengals
7
6
7
13
33
Spread
+7.5
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
356
436
Total Plays
57
61
Yards / Play
6.2
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.56
+0.38
Passing Yards
248
312
Comp/Att
21/23(91%)
29/39(74%)
Yards / Pass
10.8
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.94
+0.41
Rushing Yards
108
124
Rush Attempts
32
20
Yards / Rush
3.4
6.2
EPA / Rush
+0.14
+0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
30
Passing 1st downs
13
18
Rushing 1st downs
8
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
56%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
10
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-6
-12
Sack EPA
-2.71
-2.48
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
28
16
Penalty EPA
-3.76
-3.02
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model76.5%
Spread Pick
Bengals-7.5
Expected Value
+2.3%
Cover Probability
53.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+236
Home nfelo
1,577
Away nfelo
1,388
Home Field
+63.1
Base HFA
+46.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-16.0
Home QB Adjustment
-4.1
Away QB Adjustment
+11.9
Market Regression
-0.6
Final Difference
204.8
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
J. Daniels
Proj. Value
+1.7
Team Elo Adj
+11.9
Value
Ptile
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+2.2
Team Elo Adj
-4.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
25
Yards / Game
5
24
Passing Yards / Game
18
13
Rushing Yards / Game
4
19
EPA
EPA / Play
4
28
EPA / Pass
6
17
EPA / Rush
2
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
10
Interceptions / Game
8
9
Fumbles / Game
9
8
Turnover EPA / Game
26
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
23
4th Down Efficiency
1
19
RZ Efficiency
6
30
Bengals Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
22
Yards / Game
9
17
Passing Yards / Game
1
20
Rushing Yards / Game
30
31
EPA
EPA / Play
6
29
EPA / Pass
5
20
EPA / Rush
14
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
13
Interceptions / Game
9
24
Fumbles / Game
27
6
Turnover EPA / Game
18
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
16
4th Down Efficiency
21
29
RZ Efficiency
5
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bengals
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U