WASCommanders
4-3
27
TBD
Wembley Stadium
54°F
2 mph
27
CINBengals
3-4
TBD
Wembley Stadium
54°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
7
3
7
10
27
Bengals
7
0
13
7
27
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
546
415
Total Plays
88
81
Yards / Play
6.2
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.14
Passing Yards
446
263
Comp/Att
38/56(68%)
27/42(64%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.42
+0.10
Rushing Yards
100
152
Rush Attempts
31
36
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
30
35
Passing 1st downs
24
17
Rushing 1st downs
2
10
Penalty 1st downs
4
8
3rd Down %
47%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
8
8
3rd Down Attempts
17
15
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-0.85
-7.02
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-12
-21
Sack EPA
-2.14
-4.37
Penalties
15
7
Penalty Yards
106
85
Penalty EPA
-12.22
-8.65
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+80
Home nfelo
1,562
Away nfelo
1,483
Home Field
--
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.0
Home QB Adjustment
+12.6
Away QB Adjustment
+10.5
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+10.5
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
7
Yards / Game
3
17
Passing Yards / Game
12
25
Rushing Yards / Game
20
21
EPA
EPA / Play
5
22
EPA / Pass
5
14
EPA / Rush
6
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
7
Interceptions / Game
14
4
Fumbles / Game
16
27
Turnover EPA / Game
15
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
16
4th Down Efficiency
14
14
RZ Efficiency
30
8
Bengals Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
18
Yards / Game
12
28
Passing Yards / Game
9
30
Rushing Yards / Game
13
24
EPA
EPA / Play
10
27
EPA / Pass
12
26
EPA / Rush
5
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
29
Interceptions / Game
6
18
Fumbles / Game
7
20
Turnover EPA / Game
27
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
32
4th Down Efficiency
3
20
RZ Efficiency
18
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Bengals
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U