WASCommanders
3-3
0
TBD
Rogers Centre
70°F
023
BUFBills
4-2
TBD
Rogers Centre
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
0
0
0
0
Bills
7
6
7
3
23
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
178
390
Total Plays
54
62
Yards / Play
3.3
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.55
-0.09
Passing Yards
152
252
Comp/Att
20/33(61%)
21/27(78%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
9.3
EPA / Pass
-0.64
+0.27
Rushing Yards
26
138
Rush Attempts
11
33
Yards / Rush
2.4
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
17
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
--
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
29%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-9.38
-9.71
Sacks
10
2
Sack Yards
-56
-10
Sack EPA
-13.67
-3.01
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
59
35
Penalty EPA
-9.34
-3.77
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+128
Home nfelo
1,490
Away nfelo
1,491
Home Field
+102.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+27.4
Home QB Adjustment
+17.8
Away QB Adjustment
-9.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Beck
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-9.6
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+17.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
30
Yards / Game
16
25
Passing Yards / Game
8
1
Rushing Yards / Game
27
28
EPA
EPA / Play
22
26
EPA / Pass
22
21
EPA / Rush
15
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
32
Interceptions / Game
29
5
Fumbles / Game
24
12
Turnover EPA / Game
6
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
21
4th Down Efficiency
29
31
RZ Efficiency
28
32
Bills Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
21
Yards / Game
14
12
Passing Yards / Game
15
21
Rushing Yards / Game
14
17
EPA
EPA / Play
17
20
EPA / Pass
19
19
EPA / Rush
6
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
12
Interceptions / Game
31
22
Fumbles / Game
2
28
Turnover EPA / Game
10
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
17
4th Down Efficiency
16
12
RZ Efficiency
11
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Bills
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U