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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ bills week 8, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
3-3
0
TBD
Rogers Centre
70°F
0
23
BUFBills
4-2
BUF logo
TBD
Rogers Centre
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
0
0
0
0
Bills
7
6
7
3
23

Spread

BUF logo
-4

Total

UNDER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
178
390
Total Plays
54
62
Yards / Play
3.3
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.55
-0.09
Passing Yards
152
252
Comp/Att
20/33(61%)
21/27(78%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
9.3
EPA / Pass
-0.64
+0.27
Rushing Yards
26
138
Rush Attempts
11
33
Yards / Rush
2.4
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
10
17
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
--
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
29%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-9.38
-9.71
Sacks
10
2
Sack Yards
-56
-10
Sack EPA
-13.67
-3.01
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
59
35
Penalty EPA
-9.34
-3.77

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+127
Home nfelo
1,490
Away nfelo
1,492
Home Field
+102.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+27.4
Home QB Adjustment
+17.8
Away QB Adjustment
-9.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

J. Beck headshot

J. Beck

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-9.6
Value
Ptile
11/18
-3.8
27
11/26
-3.7
28
12/02
-8.7
4
12/09
-9.1
3
10/23
0.8
57
R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+17.8
Value
Ptile
12/05
-2.7
30
12/12
1.8
60
12/19
2.0
62
12/26
-8.4
6
09/11
6.5
88
09/18
6.7
89
09/25
3.9
76
10/02
-0.5
48
10/09
0.8
57
10/16
-0.8
46

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Bills Defense
Commanders logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
26
30
Yards / Game
16
25
Passing Yards / Game
8
1
Rushing Yards / Game
27
28

EPA

EPA / Play
22
26
EPA / Pass
22
21
EPA / Rush
15
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
32
Interceptions / Game
29
5
Fumbles / Game
24
12
Turnover EPA / Game
6
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
21
4th Down Efficiency
29
31
RZ Efficiency
28
32
Bills Offense vs Commanders Defense
Bills logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
13
21
Yards / Game
14
12
Passing Yards / Game
15
21
Rushing Yards / Game
14
17

EPA

EPA / Play
17
20
EPA / Pass
19
19
EPA / Rush
6
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
12
Interceptions / Game
31
22
Fumbles / Game
2
28
Turnover EPA / Game
10
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
17
4th Down Efficiency
16
12
RZ Efficiency
11
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/12
-1
L
P
U
12/19
-3
L
W
O
12/26
3
W
W
U
01/02
-3
L
W
U
09/11
14
W
W
O
09/18
1
W
L
U
09/26
-2
L
W
U
10/02
7
W
W
U
10/16
-7
L
L
U
10/23
-13
L
L
O
BUF logo

Bills

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/12
7
W
W
U
12/19
3
W
W
U
12/26
-31
L
L
U
01/02
-31
L
L
O
09/11
34
W
W
O
09/18
3
W
L
O
09/25
3
W
W
O
10/02
-3
L
L
O
10/09
7
W
W
O
10/16
-3
L
P
O