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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ bills week 9, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
1-7
9
TBD
New Era Field
42°F
18 mph
24
BUFBills
5-2
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
42°F
18 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
6
3
0
9
Bills
10
7
0
7
24

Spread

BUF logo
-10.5

Total

UNDER
37

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
243
268
Total Plays
49
61
Yards / Play
5.0
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.21
+0.11
Passing Yards
116
146
Comp/Att
15/22(68%)
14/20(70%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.24
+0.38
Rushing Yards
127
122
Rush Attempts
23
39
Yards / Rush
5.5
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
12
18
Passing 1st downs
7
7
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
18%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-28
-14
Sack EPA
-6.08
-2.47
Penalties
3
2
Penalty Yards
15
--
Penalty EPA
-2.66
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5

Win Probability

Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+233
Home nfelo
1,452
Away nfelo
1,313
Home Field
+69.5
Base HFA
+51.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+18.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+24.0
Home QB Adjustment
+2.4
Away QB Adjustment
-21.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5

Quarterbacks

D. Haskins headshot

D. Haskins

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-21.7
No recent game data available
J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.4
Value
Ptile
12/16
0.1
47
12/23
-3.6
24
12/30
12.0
98
09/08
0.6
56
09/15
1.1
61
09/22
0.7
57
09/29
-8.2
9
10/06
-1.1
45
10/20
0.1
53
10/27
-3.6
27

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Bills Defense
Commanders logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
32
2
Yards / Game
31
4
Passing Yards / Game
27
5
Rushing Yards / Game
23
11

EPA

EPA / Play
30
4
EPA / Pass
32
5
EPA / Rush
24
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
19
Interceptions / Game
19
12
Fumbles / Game
10
18
Turnover EPA / Game
11
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
9
4th Down Efficiency
21
6
RZ Efficiency
27
14
Bills Offense vs Commanders Defense
Bills logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
23
27
Yards / Game
24
27
Passing Yards / Game
21
23
Rushing Yards / Game
7
31

EPA

EPA / Play
20
29
EPA / Pass
20
27
EPA / Rush
10
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
6
Interceptions / Game
15
13
Fumbles / Game
15
14
Turnover EPA / Game
23
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
32
4th Down Efficiency
22
30
RZ Efficiency
20
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
-9
L
W
O
12/30
-24
L
L
U
09/08
-5
L
W
O
09/15
-10
L
L
O
09/23
-16
L
L
O
09/29
-21
L
L
U
10/06
-26
L
L
U
10/13
1
W
L
U
10/20
-9
L
W
U
10/24
-10
L
W
U
BUF logo

Bills

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/16
1
W
L
U
12/23
-12
L
W
U
12/30
25
W
W
O
09/08
1
W
W
U
09/15
14
W
W
U
09/22
4
W
L
U
09/29
-6
L
W
U
10/06
7
W
W
U
10/20
10
W
L
O
10/27
-18
L
L
O