WASCommanders
1-7
9
TBD
New Era Field
42°F
18 mph
24
BUFBills
5-2
TBD
New Era Field
42°F
18 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
6
3
0
9
Bills
10
7
0
7
24
Spread
-10.5
Total
UNDER
37
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
243
268
Total Plays
49
61
Yards / Play
5.0
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.21
+0.11
Passing Yards
116
146
Comp/Att
15/22(68%)
14/20(70%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.24
+0.38
Rushing Yards
127
122
Rush Attempts
23
39
Yards / Rush
5.5
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
18
Passing 1st downs
7
7
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
18%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-28
-14
Sack EPA
-6.08
-2.47
Penalties
3
2
Penalty Yards
15
--
Penalty EPA
-2.66
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+228
Home nfelo
1,451
Away nfelo
1,316
Home Field
+68.6
Base HFA
+50.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+17.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+24.0
Home QB Adjustment
+2.4
Away QB Adjustment
-21.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
D. Haskins
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-21.7
No recent game data available
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+2.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
2
Yards / Game
31
4
Passing Yards / Game
27
5
Rushing Yards / Game
23
11
EPA
EPA / Play
30
4
EPA / Pass
32
5
EPA / Rush
24
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
19
Interceptions / Game
19
12
Fumbles / Game
10
18
Turnover EPA / Game
11
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
9
4th Down Efficiency
21
6
RZ Efficiency
27
14
Bills Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
27
Yards / Game
24
27
Passing Yards / Game
21
23
Rushing Yards / Game
7
31
EPA
EPA / Play
20
29
EPA / Pass
21
27
EPA / Rush
10
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
6
Interceptions / Game
15
13
Fumbles / Game
15
14
Turnover EPA / Game
23
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
32
4th Down Efficiency
22
30
RZ Efficiency
20
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bills
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U