WASCommanders
-
20
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
93°F
6 mph
37
TBBuccaneers
-
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
93°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
7
7
6
20
Buccaneers
6
10
7
14
37
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
299
392
Total Plays
57
61
Yards / Play
5.2
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.36
Passing Yards
161
280
Comp/Att
17/25(68%)
24/30(80%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
9.3
EPA / Pass
-0.07
+0.69
Rushing Yards
138
112
Rush Attempts
30
30
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.28
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
21
Passing 1st downs
7
15
Rushing 1st downs
12
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
25%
69%
3rd Down Conversions
2
9
3rd Down Attempts
8
13
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-23
-9
Sack EPA
-3.93
-2.57
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
29
46
Penalty EPA
-4.79
-7.31
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model65.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+143
Home nfelo
1,501
Away nfelo
1,398
Home Field
+46.4
Base HFA
+46.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-6.8
Home QB Adjustment
-4.7
Away QB Adjustment
+2.1
Market Regression
+10.5
Final Difference
113.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
J. Daniels
Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
No recent game data available
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-4.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
17
Yards / Game
5
19
Passing Yards / Game
18
25
Rushing Yards / Game
4
3
EPA
EPA / Play
4
18
EPA / Pass
6
22
EPA / Rush
2
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
18
Interceptions / Game
8
29
Fumbles / Game
9
13
Turnover EPA / Game
26
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
15
4th Down Efficiency
1
24
RZ Efficiency
6
7
Buccaneers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
22
Yards / Game
3
17
Passing Yards / Game
8
20
Rushing Yards / Game
5
31
EPA
EPA / Play
5
29
EPA / Pass
4
20
EPA / Rush
7
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
13
Interceptions / Game
24
24
Fumbles / Game
19
6
Turnover EPA / Game
14
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
16
4th Down Efficiency
8
29
RZ Efficiency
4
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
1-9
SU
3-6-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Buccaneers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U