WASCommanders
12-5
23
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
58°F
2 mph
20
TBBuccaneers
10-7
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
58°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
10
3
10
23
Buccaneers
3
7
7
3
20
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
350
284
Total Plays
69
44
Yards / Play
5.1
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.17
Passing Yards
268
183
Comp/Att
24/35(69%)
15/18(83%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
10.2
EPA / Pass
+0.32
+0.75
Rushing Yards
82
101
Rush Attempts
33
25
Yards / Rush
2.5
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.35
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
53%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
9
Red Zone %
40%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.35
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
--
-2
Sack EPA
-1.33
-0.71
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
39
65
Penalty EPA
-4.63
-9.85
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+82
Home nfelo
1,540
Away nfelo
1,518
Home Field
+38.9
Base HFA
+38.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+13.6
Home QB Adjustment
+41.1
Away QB Adjustment
+27.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Daniels
Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+27.5
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+41.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
17
Yards / Game
5
19
Passing Yards / Game
18
25
Rushing Yards / Game
4
3
EPA
EPA / Play
4
18
EPA / Pass
6
22
EPA / Rush
2
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
18
Interceptions / Game
8
29
Fumbles / Game
9
13
Turnover EPA / Game
26
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
15
4th Down Efficiency
1
24
RZ Efficiency
6
7
Buccaneers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
22
Yards / Game
3
17
Passing Yards / Game
8
20
Rushing Yards / Game
5
31
EPA
EPA / Play
5
29
EPA / Pass
4
20
EPA / Rush
7
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
13
Interceptions / Game
24
24
Fumbles / Game
19
6
Turnover EPA / Game
14
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
16
4th Down Efficiency
8
29
RZ Efficiency
4
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Buccaneers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U