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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ cardinals week 2, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
1-0
15
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
30
ARICardinals
1-0
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
0
3
12
15
Cardinals
14
6
0
10
30

Spread

ARI logo
-7

Total

UNDER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
316
438
Total Plays
62
73
Yards / Play
5.1
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.10
+0.14
Passing Yards
199
278
Comp/Att
19/34(56%)
26/38(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.25
+0.10
Rushing Yards
117
160
Rush Attempts
24
32
Yards / Rush
4.9
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.17
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
19
22
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
33%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.92
+1.76
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-24
-8
Sack EPA
-11.21
-2.73
Penalties
6
11
Penalty Yards
42
97
Penalty EPA
-5.01
-12.14

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+145
Home nfelo
1,504
Away nfelo
1,389
Home Field
+8.5
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
+21.9
Home QB Adjustment
+11.0
Away QB Adjustment
-10.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

D. Haskins headshot

D. Haskins

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-10.9
Value
Ptile
11/03
-3.9
25
11/17
-8.7
7
11/24
-6.3
15
12/01
-8.9
6
12/08
-6.9
13
12/15
5.0
83
12/22
-1.1
46
09/13
-3.4
22
K. Murray headshot

K. Murray

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+11.0
Value
Ptile
10/27
-5.1
19
10/31
5.0
84
11/10
3.7
76
11/17
6.3
88
12/01
-7.2
11
12/08
-7.4
10
12/15
4.5
81
12/22
-1.4
44
12/29
1.4
64
09/13
5.7
81

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Commanders logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
25
12
Yards / Game
29
13
Passing Yards / Game
11
11
Rushing Yards / Game
26
21

EPA

EPA / Play
27
9
EPA / Pass
29
10
EPA / Rush
11
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
22
Interceptions / Game
27
20
Fumbles / Game
17
18
Turnover EPA / Game
10
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
10
4th Down Efficiency
21
26
RZ Efficiency
15
4
Cardinals Offense vs Commanders Defense
Cardinals logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
14
5
Yards / Game
6
5
Passing Yards / Game
10
6
Rushing Yards / Game
6
15

EPA

EPA / Play
15
7
EPA / Pass
22
4
EPA / Rush
3
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
5
Interceptions / Game
17
7
Fumbles / Game
23
4
Turnover EPA / Game
8
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
7
4th Down Efficiency
5
2
RZ Efficiency
9
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/24
-10
L
W
U
11/03
-15
L
L
U
11/17
-17
L
L
O
11/24
3
W
W
U
12/01
8
W
W
O
12/08
-5
L
W
U
12/15
-10
L
L
O
12/22
-6
L
L
O
12/29
-31
L
L
O
09/13
10
W
W
O
ARI logo

Cardinals

3-7
SU
5-3-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/27
-22
L
L
U
10/31
-3
L
W
O
11/10
-3
L
W
O
11/17
-10
L
P
O
12/01
-27
L
L
U
12/08
-6
L
L
U
12/15
14
W
W
O
12/22
14
W
W
U
12/29
-7
L
P
O
09/13
4
W
W
U