WASCommanders
1-0
15
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
030
ARICardinals
1-0
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
0
3
12
15
Cardinals
14
6
0
10
30
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
316
438
Total Plays
62
73
Yards / Play
5.1
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.10
+0.14
Passing Yards
199
278
Comp/Att
19/34(56%)
26/38(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.25
+0.10
Rushing Yards
117
160
Rush Attempts
24
32
Yards / Rush
4.9
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.17
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
22
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
33%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.92
+1.76
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-24
-8
Sack EPA
-11.21
-2.73
Penalties
6
11
Penalty Yards
42
97
Penalty EPA
-5.01
-12.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+150
Home nfelo
1,506
Away nfelo
1,386
Home Field
+8.5
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
+21.9
Home QB Adjustment
+11.0
Away QB Adjustment
-10.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
D. Haskins
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-10.9
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+11.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
12
Yards / Game
29
13
Passing Yards / Game
11
11
Rushing Yards / Game
26
21
EPA
EPA / Play
27
9
EPA / Pass
29
10
EPA / Rush
11
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
22
Interceptions / Game
27
20
Fumbles / Game
17
18
Turnover EPA / Game
10
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
10
4th Down Efficiency
21
26
RZ Efficiency
15
4
Cardinals Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
5
Yards / Game
6
5
Passing Yards / Game
10
6
Rushing Yards / Game
6
15
EPA
EPA / Play
15
7
EPA / Pass
22
4
EPA / Rush
3
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
5
Interceptions / Game
17
7
Fumbles / Game
23
4
Turnover EPA / Game
8
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
7
4th Down Efficiency
5
2
RZ Efficiency
9
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Cardinals
3-7
SU
5-3-2
ATS
5-5
O/U