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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ cardinals week 4, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
2-1
42
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
14
ARICardinals
1-2
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
7
10
10
15
42
Cardinals
7
0
7
0
14

Spread

WAS logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
49

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
451
296
Total Plays
68
58
Yards / Play
6.6
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.46
-0.08
Passing Yards
--
115
Comp/Att
26/31(84%)
16/22(73%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.46
-0.27
Rushing Yards
216
181
Rush Attempts
37
32
Yards / Rush
5.8
5.7
EPA / Rush
+0.38
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
29
17
Passing 1st downs
14
5
Rushing 1st downs
13
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
75%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
80%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.53
-3.93
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-27
Sack EPA
--
-7.47
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
--
82
Penalty EPA
--
-8.38

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+98
Home nfelo
1,453
Away nfelo
1,420
Home Field
+63.3
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+16.7
Net QB Adjustment
+1.9
Home QB Adjustment
+25.0
Away QB Adjustment
+23.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

J. Daniels headshot

J. Daniels

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+23.1
Value
Ptile
09/08
5.9
84
09/15
-0.7
44
09/23
8.3
93
K. Murray headshot

K. Murray

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+25.0
Value
Ptile
11/19
1.7
61
11/26
0.1
49
12/03
-1.9
35
12/17
-0.8
45
12/24
2.8
69
12/31
5.5
84
01/07
4.9
81
09/08
1.6
60
09/15
10.2
97
09/22
0.0
49

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Commanders logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
6
16
Yards / Game
5
20
Passing Yards / Game
18
8
Rushing Yards / Game
4
20

EPA

EPA / Play
4
25
EPA / Pass
6
24
EPA / Rush
2
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
28
Interceptions / Game
8
25
Fumbles / Game
9
19
Turnover EPA / Game
26
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
28
4th Down Efficiency
1
17
RZ Efficiency
6
8
Cardinals Offense vs Commanders Defense
Cardinals logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
11
22
Yards / Game
11
17
Passing Yards / Game
28
20
Rushing Yards / Game
7
31

EPA

EPA / Play
8
29
EPA / Pass
11
20
EPA / Rush
5
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
13
Interceptions / Game
11
24
Fumbles / Game
22
6
Turnover EPA / Game
20
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
16
4th Down Efficiency
27
29
RZ Efficiency
17
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/19
-12
L
L
O
11/23
-35
L
L
O
12/03
-30
L
L
O
12/17
-8
L
L
U
12/24
-2
L
W
O
12/31
-17
L
L
U
01/07
-28
L
L
O
09/08
-17
L
L
O
09/15
3
W
W
U
09/23
5
W
W
O
ARI logo

Cardinals

3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/19
-5
L
W
U
11/26
-23
L
L
O
12/03
14
W
W
U
12/17
-16
L
L
O
12/24
-11
L
L
O
12/31
4
W
W
O
01/07
-1
L
W
U
09/08
-6
L
W
O
09/15
31
W
W
O
09/22
-7
L
L
U