WASCommanders
2-1
42
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
014
ARICardinals
1-2
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
7
10
10
15
42
Cardinals
7
0
7
0
14
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
451
296
Total Plays
68
58
Yards / Play
6.6
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.46
-0.08
Passing Yards
--
115
Comp/Att
26/31(84%)
16/22(73%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.46
-0.27
Rushing Yards
216
181
Rush Attempts
37
32
Yards / Rush
5.8
5.7
EPA / Rush
+0.38
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
17
Passing 1st downs
14
5
Rushing 1st downs
13
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
75%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
80%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.53
-3.93
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-27
Sack EPA
--
-7.47
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
--
82
Penalty EPA
--
-8.38
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+102
Home nfelo
1,455
Away nfelo
1,418
Home Field
+63.3
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+16.7
Net QB Adjustment
+1.9
Home QB Adjustment
+25.0
Away QB Adjustment
+23.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Daniels
Proj. Value
+1.7
Team Elo Adj
+23.1
Value
Ptile
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+1.7
Team Elo Adj
+25.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
16
Yards / Game
5
20
Passing Yards / Game
18
8
Rushing Yards / Game
4
20
EPA
EPA / Play
4
25
EPA / Pass
6
24
EPA / Rush
2
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
28
Interceptions / Game
8
25
Fumbles / Game
9
19
Turnover EPA / Game
26
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
28
4th Down Efficiency
1
17
RZ Efficiency
6
8
Cardinals Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
22
Yards / Game
11
17
Passing Yards / Game
28
20
Rushing Yards / Game
7
31
EPA
EPA / Play
8
29
EPA / Pass
11
20
EPA / Rush
5
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
13
Interceptions / Game
11
24
Fumbles / Game
22
6
Turnover EPA / Game
20
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
16
4th Down Efficiency
27
29
RZ Efficiency
17
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Cardinals
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U