WASCommanders
4-11
20
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
74°F
8 mph
23
LACChargers
12-3
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
74°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
14
3
3
20
Chargers
10
3
0
10
23
Spread
3
P
Total
OVER
39
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
339
364
Total Plays
65
63
Yards / Play
5.2
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.10
Passing Yards
275
314
Comp/Att
28/42(67%)
28/45(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.24
+0.21
Rushing Yards
64
50
Rush Attempts
22
17
Yards / Rush
2.9
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
19
Passing 1st downs
12
17
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
50%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.46
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-6
-1
Sack EPA
-2.12
-0.84
Penalties
3
2
Penalty Yards
--
17
Penalty EPA
--
-3.28
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
Chargers-3.0
Expected Value
+13.3%
Cover Probability
55.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+276
Home nfelo
1,596
Away nfelo
1,427
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+22.6
Home QB Adjustment
+20.2
Away QB Adjustment
-2.4
Market Regression
-83.3
Final Difference
145.7
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
J. Campbell
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-2.4
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+20.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
10
Yards / Game
22
12
Passing Yards / Game
14
26
Rushing Yards / Game
28
21
EPA
EPA / Play
21
23
EPA / Pass
18
19
EPA / Rush
23
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
25
Interceptions / Game
16
20
Fumbles / Game
4
14
Turnover EPA / Game
24
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
22
4th Down Efficiency
30
20
RZ Efficiency
8
18
Chargers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
17
Yards / Game
10
11
Passing Yards / Game
4
27
Rushing Yards / Game
31
15
EPA
EPA / Play
1
20
EPA / Pass
1
25
EPA / Rush
28
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
5
Interceptions / Game
6
26
Fumbles / Game
3
16
Turnover EPA / Game
32
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
21
4th Down Efficiency
13
1
RZ Efficiency
10
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Chargers
10-0
SU
7-3
ATS
5-4-1
O/U