WASCommanders
3-4
7
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
54°F
8 mph
28
KCChiefs
4-3
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
54°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
7
0
0
7
Chiefs
0
7
14
7
28
Spread
-10.5
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
260
432
Total Plays
52
67
Yards / Play
5.0
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.13
+0.25
Passing Yards
200
284
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
25/34(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
8.4
EPA / Pass
-0.25
+0.40
Rushing Yards
60
148
Rush Attempts
20
30
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.10
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
26
Passing 1st downs
9
16
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
58%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.52
-7.04
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-13
-15
Sack EPA
-4.31
-1.10
Penalties
3
9
Penalty Yards
35
95
Penalty EPA
-2.23
-0.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+241
Home nfelo
1,634
Away nfelo
1,515
Home Field
+48.6
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.4
Net QB Adjustment
+73.9
Home QB Adjustment
+28.8
Away QB Adjustment
-45.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
-45.0
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
+28.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
4
Yards / Game
18
7
Passing Yards / Game
12
26
Rushing Yards / Game
6
9
EPA
EPA / Play
12
17
EPA / Pass
16
12
EPA / Rush
11
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
20
Interceptions / Game
14
18
Fumbles / Game
23
25
Turnover EPA / Game
9
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
23
4th Down Efficiency
16
1
RZ Efficiency
2
10
Chiefs Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
28
Yards / Game
7
30
Passing Yards / Game
6
20
Rushing Yards / Game
16
26
EPA
EPA / Play
4
30
EPA / Pass
6
31
EPA / Rush
3
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
14
Interceptions / Game
10
25
Fumbles / Game
1
28
Turnover EPA / Game
26
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
24
4th Down Efficiency
3
14
RZ Efficiency
7
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chiefs
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U