WASCommanders
1-3
16
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
031
DALCowboys
2-3
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
3
3
10
0
16
Cowboys
7
1
7
10
25
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
52
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
433
213
Total Plays
75
50
Yards / Play
5.8
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.06
Passing Yards
217
165
Comp/Att
19/39(49%)
18/30(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.17
-0.06
Rushing Yards
216
48
Rush Attempts
33
19
Yards / Rush
6.5
2.5
EPA / Rush
+0.24
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
18
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
11
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
50%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.67
-4.37
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-29
-5
Sack EPA
-6.40
-1.31
Penalties
12
7
Penalty Yards
104
80
Penalty EPA
-12.24
-9.92
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model65.1%
Spread Pick
Commanders+6.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+72
Home nfelo
1,521
Away nfelo
1,485
Home Field
+18.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+16.9
Home QB Adjustment
+23.5
Away QB Adjustment
+6.6
Market Regression
-0.1
Final Difference
108.2
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+6.6
A. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+23.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
26
Yards / Game
10
32
Passing Yards / Game
19
25
Rushing Yards / Game
5
26
EPA
EPA / Play
28
25
EPA / Pass
22
24
EPA / Rush
11
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
26
Interceptions / Game
20
16
Fumbles / Game
29
5
Turnover EPA / Game
7
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
29
4th Down Efficiency
29
19
RZ Efficiency
18
28
Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
30
Yards / Game
17
19
Passing Yards / Game
17
26
Rushing Yards / Game
25
17
EPA
EPA / Play
6
24
EPA / Pass
11
27
EPA / Rush
3
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
14
Interceptions / Game
9
14
Fumbles / Game
13
11
Turnover EPA / Game
25
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
4
4th Down Efficiency
5
29
RZ Efficiency
3
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Cowboys
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U