WASCommanders
3-3
22
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
044
DALCowboys
2-3
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
6
7
7
0
20
Cowboys
17
10
8
3
38
Spread
-1.5
Total
OVER
55.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
341
409
Total Plays
65
62
Yards / Play
5.2
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.26
Passing Yards
205
257
Comp/Att
16/32(50%)
21/30(70%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
8.6
EPA / Pass
-0.62
+0.24
Rushing Yards
136
152
Rush Attempts
29
31
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.20
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
21
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
44%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-15.28
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-14
-7
Sack EPA
-9.80
-0.40
Penalties
11
10
Penalty Yards
118
79
Penalty EPA
-13.88
-10.88
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model52.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-6
Home nfelo
1,470
Away nfelo
1,543
Home Field
+44.0
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
-18.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.3
Time Adj
+7.3
Net QB Adjustment
+22.7
Home QB Adjustment
+30.6
Away QB Adjustment
+7.9
Market Regression
+54.4
Final Difference
16.4
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
J. Daniels
Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+7.9
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
+30.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
31
Yards / Game
18
31
Passing Yards / Game
12
23
Rushing Yards / Game
6
28
EPA
EPA / Play
12
31
EPA / Pass
16
30
EPA / Rush
11
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
26
Interceptions / Game
14
26
Fumbles / Game
23
24
Turnover EPA / Game
9
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
32
4th Down Efficiency
16
5
RZ Efficiency
2
30
Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
28
Yards / Game
3
30
Passing Yards / Game
9
20
Rushing Yards / Game
12
26
EPA
EPA / Play
3
30
EPA / Pass
8
31
EPA / Rush
8
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
14
Interceptions / Game
22
25
Fumbles / Game
15
28
Turnover EPA / Game
18
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
24
4th Down Efficiency
13
14
RZ Efficiency
13
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Cowboys
4-5-1
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U