WASCommanders
3-6
6
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
07
DALCowboys
6-3
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
3
3
0
6
Cowboys
0
0
0
7
7
Spread
+11
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
324
305
Total Plays
58
61
Yards / Play
5.6
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.19
Passing Yards
246
152
Comp/Att
24/37(65%)
15/27(56%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.01
Rushing Yards
78
153
Rush Attempts
20
33
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
17
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
1
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
47%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.08
-7.69
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-10
-6
Sack EPA
-2.21
-1.14
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
--
35
Penalty EPA
--
-4.50
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+268
Home nfelo
1,617
Away nfelo
1,409
Home Field
+44.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+15.3
Home QB Adjustment
+7.5
Away QB Adjustment
-7.8
Market Regression
-58.3
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
J. Campbell
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-7.8
A. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+7.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
3
Yards / Game
22
10
Passing Yards / Game
14
23
Rushing Yards / Game
28
4
EPA
EPA / Play
21
8
EPA / Pass
18
17
EPA / Rush
23
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
13
Interceptions / Game
16
27
Fumbles / Game
4
5
Turnover EPA / Game
24
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
3
4th Down Efficiency
30
8
RZ Efficiency
8
26
Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
17
Yards / Game
2
11
Passing Yards / Game
2
27
Rushing Yards / Game
6
15
EPA
EPA / Play
10
20
EPA / Pass
7
25
EPA / Rush
9
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
5
Interceptions / Game
3
26
Fumbles / Game
12
16
Turnover EPA / Game
29
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
21
4th Down Efficiency
31
1
RZ Efficiency
17
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Cowboys
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U