WASCommanders
3-12
16
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
047
DALCowboys
7-8
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
10
6
0
16
Cowboys
6
14
17
10
47
Spread
-12.5
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
271
517
Total Plays
59
72
Yards / Play
4.6
7.2
EPA / Play
-0.40
+0.17
Passing Yards
183
294
Comp/Att
18/37(49%)
23/33(70%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
8.9
EPA / Pass
-0.65
+0.25
Rushing Yards
88
223
Rush Attempts
20
36
Yards / Rush
4.4
6.2
EPA / Rush
-0.14
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
22
Passing 1st downs
8
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
8%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
1
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
25%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.88
-5.17
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-23
-9
Sack EPA
-4.52
-8.76
Penalties
2
10
Penalty Yards
--
81
Penalty EPA
--
-9.36
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.5
Win Probability
Market84.1%
Model84.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+294
Home nfelo
1,564
Away nfelo
1,320
Home Field
+49.1
Base HFA
+45.6
Divisional Adj
-20.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.9
Time Adj
+8.2
Net QB Adjustment
+1.2
Home QB Adjustment
+12.5
Away QB Adjustment
+11.3
Market Regression
+24.0
Final Difference
289.4
Model Spread
-12.5
Quarterbacks
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+11.3
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+12.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
9
Yards / Game
31
9
Passing Yards / Game
27
22
Rushing Yards / Game
23
10
EPA
EPA / Play
30
12
EPA / Pass
32
10
EPA / Rush
24
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
31
Interceptions / Game
19
30
Fumbles / Game
10
12
Turnover EPA / Game
11
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
3
4th Down Efficiency
21
12
RZ Efficiency
27
6
Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
27
Yards / Game
1
27
Passing Yards / Game
6
23
Rushing Yards / Game
4
31
EPA
EPA / Play
3
29
EPA / Pass
3
27
EPA / Rush
3
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
6
Interceptions / Game
14
13
Fumbles / Game
4
14
Turnover EPA / Game
24
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
32
4th Down Efficiency
20
30
RZ Efficiency
16
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Cowboys
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U