WASCommanders
11-5
23
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
019
DALCowboys
7-9
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
3
7
13
23
Cowboys
3
3
3
10
19
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
269
378
Total Plays
56
75
Yards / Play
4.8
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.06
Passing Yards
156
228
Comp/Att
21/32(66%)
20/34(59%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.05
-0.08
Rushing Yards
113
150
Rush Attempts
18
39
Yards / Rush
6.3
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.32
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
23
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
46%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
100%
17%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
+5.46
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-43
-16
Sack EPA
-9.30
-3.18
Penalties
5
11
Penalty Yards
55
67
Penalty EPA
-6.54
-7.67
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model68.3%
Spread Pick
Cowboys+7.0
Expected Value
+8.2%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-97
Home nfelo
1,476
Away nfelo
1,516
Home Field
+28.0
Base HFA
+38.9
Divisional Adj
-17.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.6
Time Adj
-7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-84.5
Home QB Adjustment
-41.8
Away QB Adjustment
+42.7
Market Regression
-41.8
Final Difference
-133.6
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
J. Daniels
Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+42.7
T. Lance
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-41.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
31
Yards / Game
5
28
Passing Yards / Game
18
19
Rushing Yards / Game
4
29
EPA
EPA / Play
4
27
EPA / Pass
6
15
EPA / Rush
2
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
19
Interceptions / Game
8
13
Fumbles / Game
9
11
Turnover EPA / Game
26
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
9
4th Down Efficiency
1
27
RZ Efficiency
6
32
Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
22
Yards / Game
16
17
Passing Yards / Game
6
20
Rushing Yards / Game
27
31
EPA
EPA / Play
25
29
EPA / Pass
29
20
EPA / Rush
30
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
13
Interceptions / Game
21
24
Fumbles / Game
32
6
Turnover EPA / Game
5
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
16
4th Down Efficiency
32
29
RZ Efficiency
31
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Cowboys
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U