WASCommanders
0-5
17
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
84°F
13 mph
16
MIADolphins
0-4
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
84°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
7
10
0
17
Dolphins
0
3
0
13
16
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
311
271
Total Plays
58
70
Yards / Play
5.4
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.15
Passing Yards
--
187
Comp/Att
13/25(52%)
27/44(61%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.3
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.37
Rushing Yards
145
84
Rush Attempts
33
21
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.07
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
21
Passing 1st downs
7
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
18%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.85
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-30
Sack EPA
--
-7.75
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
--
45
Penalty EPA
--
-5.61
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model67.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-98
Home nfelo
1,230
Away nfelo
1,324
Home Field
+69.3
Base HFA
+53.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+15.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-74.2
Home QB Adjustment
-71.9
Away QB Adjustment
+2.4
Market Regression
-7.6
Final Difference
-127.5
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.4
J. Rosen
Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-71.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
32
Yards / Game
31
30
Passing Yards / Game
27
29
Rushing Yards / Game
23
27
EPA
EPA / Play
30
32
EPA / Pass
32
32
EPA / Rush
24
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
1
Interceptions / Game
19
13
Fumbles / Game
10
32
Turnover EPA / Game
11
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
24
4th Down Efficiency
21
28
RZ Efficiency
27
28
Dolphins Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
27
Yards / Game
27
27
Passing Yards / Game
4
23
Rushing Yards / Game
32
31
EPA
EPA / Play
27
29
EPA / Pass
26
27
EPA / Rush
30
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
6
Interceptions / Game
27
13
Fumbles / Game
4
14
Turnover EPA / Game
9
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
32
4th Down Efficiency
17
30
RZ Efficiency
18
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Dolphins
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U