nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ dolphins week 6, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

WAS logo
WASCommanders
0-5
17
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
84°F
13 mph
16
MIADolphins
0-4
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
84°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
7
10
0
17
Dolphins
0
3
0
13
16

Spread

MIA logo
+6

Total

UNDER
42

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
311
271
Total Plays
58
70
Yards / Play
5.4
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.15
Passing Yards
--
187
Comp/Att
13/25(52%)
27/44(61%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.3
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.37
Rushing Yards
145
84
Rush Attempts
33
21
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.07
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
13
21
Passing 1st downs
7
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
18%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
2
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.85
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-30
Sack EPA
--
-7.75
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
--
45
Penalty EPA
--
-5.61

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model67.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-98
Home nfelo
1,228
Away nfelo
1,321
Home Field
+70.2
Base HFA
+54.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+15.7
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-74.2
Home QB Adjustment
-71.9
Away QB Adjustment
+2.4
Market Regression
-7.4
Final Difference
-127.3
Model Spread
+5.0

Quarterbacks

C. Keenum headshot

C. Keenum

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.4
Value
Ptile
11/25
-1.1
38
12/02
-3.9
23
12/09
-1.9
34
12/15
-2.7
30
12/24
-2.3
32
12/30
1.8
60
09/08
7.9
93
09/15
2.3
68
09/23
-1.5
43
09/29
-9.6
5
J. Rosen headshot

J. Rosen

Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-71.9
Value
Ptile
11/11
-9.4
5
11/18
-5.8
14
11/25
-5.5
15
12/02
-4.6
20
12/09
-4.8
19
12/16
-13.9
1
12/23
-6.0
13
12/30
-8.9
6
09/22
-7.1
11
09/29
-6.7
13

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Commanders logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
32
32
Yards / Game
31
30
Passing Yards / Game
27
29
Rushing Yards / Game
23
27

EPA

EPA / Play
30
32
EPA / Pass
32
32
EPA / Rush
24
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
1
Interceptions / Game
19
13
Fumbles / Game
10
32
Turnover EPA / Game
11
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
24
4th Down Efficiency
21
28
RZ Efficiency
27
28
Dolphins Offense vs Commanders Defense
Dolphins logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
25
27
Yards / Game
27
27
Passing Yards / Game
4
23
Rushing Yards / Game
32
31

EPA

EPA / Play
27
29
EPA / Pass
26
27
EPA / Rush
30
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
6
Interceptions / Game
27
13
Fumbles / Game
4
14
Turnover EPA / Game
9
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
32
4th Down Efficiency
17
30
RZ Efficiency
18
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/03
-15
L
L
U
12/09
-24
L
L
O
12/16
3
W
W
U
12/22
-9
L
W
O
12/30
-24
L
L
U
09/08
-5
L
W
O
09/15
-10
L
L
O
09/23
-16
L
L
O
09/29
-21
L
L
U
10/06
-26
L
L
U
MIA logo

Dolphins

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/25
-3
L
W
U
12/02
4
W
W
U
12/09
1
W
W
O
12/16
-24
L
L
O
12/23
-10
L
L
U
12/30
-25
L
L
O
09/08
-49
L
L
O
09/15
-43
L
L
U
09/22
-25
L
L
U
09/29
-20
L
L
U