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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ dolphins week 10, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
3-5
9
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
79°F
19 mph
20
MIADolphins
1-7
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
79°F
19 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
3
3
3
0
9
Dolphins
7
3
3
7
20

Spread

MIA logo
-4

Total

UNDER
38.5

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
246
303
Total Plays
51
64
Yards / Play
4.8
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.32
-0.10
Passing Yards
185
200
Comp/Att
21/32(66%)
20/29(69%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.22
+0.00
Rushing Yards
61
103
Rush Attempts
16
33
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
16
20
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
38%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
0%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-9.91
-9.45
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-30
-9
Sack EPA
-6.44
-6.32
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
51
55
Penalty EPA
-6.17
-5.89

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+93
Home nfelo
1,475
Away nfelo
1,445
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.6
Home QB Adjustment
-18.4
Away QB Adjustment
-19.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

R. Grossman headshot

R. Grossman

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-19.1
Value
Ptile
12/06
-5.6
15
11/09
-0.6
47
12/19
-1.3
41
12/26
-4.6
20
01/02
2.4
65
09/11
1.7
64
09/18
-0.6
47
09/26
-1.8
37
10/02
-5.6
16
10/16
-12.2
1
M. Moore headshot

M. Moore

Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-18.4
Value
Ptile
01/03
-0.8
45
09/12
-11.0
2
09/19
-7.7
8
10/24
5.5
85
10/31
-6.3
12
11/07
-5.4
15
10/17
-8.6
4
10/23
-3.3
29
10/30
-4.8
20
11/06
7.2
91

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Commanders logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
26
6
Yards / Game
16
15
Passing Yards / Game
8
30
Rushing Yards / Game
27
4

EPA

EPA / Play
22
11
EPA / Pass
22
14
EPA / Rush
15
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
3
Interceptions / Game
29
17
Fumbles / Game
24
32
Turnover EPA / Game
6
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
4
4th Down Efficiency
29
23
RZ Efficiency
28
5
Dolphins Offense vs Commanders Defense
Dolphins logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
20
21
Yards / Game
23
12
Passing Yards / Game
22
21
Rushing Yards / Game
10
17

EPA

EPA / Play
18
20
EPA / Pass
17
19
EPA / Rush
20
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
12
Interceptions / Game
9
22
Fumbles / Game
27
28
Turnover EPA / Game
21
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
17
4th Down Efficiency
19
12
RZ Efficiency
24
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/26
3
W
W
U
01/02
-3
L
W
U
09/11
14
W
W
O
09/18
1
W
L
U
09/26
-2
L
W
U
10/02
7
W
W
U
10/16
-7
L
L
U
10/23
-13
L
L
O
10/30
-23
L
L
U
11/06
-8
L
L
U
MIA logo

Dolphins

1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/26
-7
L
L
O
01/02
-31
L
L
O
09/12
-14
L
L
O
09/18
-10
L
L
U
09/25
-1
L
L
U
10/02
-10
L
L
U
10/17
-18
L
L
U
10/23
-3
L
L
U
10/30
-3
L
W
U
11/06
28
W
W
U