WASCommanders
3-5
9
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
79°F
19 mph
20
MIADolphins
1-7
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
79°F
19 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
3
3
3
0
9
Dolphins
7
3
3
7
20
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
246
303
Total Plays
51
64
Yards / Play
4.8
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.32
-0.10
Passing Yards
185
200
Comp/Att
21/32(66%)
20/29(69%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.22
+0.00
Rushing Yards
61
103
Rush Attempts
16
33
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
20
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
38%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
0%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-9.91
-9.45
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-30
-9
Sack EPA
-6.44
-6.32
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
51
55
Penalty EPA
-6.17
-5.89
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+91
Home nfelo
1,472
Away nfelo
1,444
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.6
Home QB Adjustment
-18.4
Away QB Adjustment
-19.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
R. Grossman
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-19.1
M. Moore
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-18.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
6
Yards / Game
16
15
Passing Yards / Game
8
30
Rushing Yards / Game
27
4
EPA
EPA / Play
22
11
EPA / Pass
22
14
EPA / Rush
15
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
3
Interceptions / Game
29
17
Fumbles / Game
24
32
Turnover EPA / Game
6
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
4
4th Down Efficiency
29
23
RZ Efficiency
28
5
Dolphins Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
21
Yards / Game
23
12
Passing Yards / Game
22
21
Rushing Yards / Game
10
17
EPA
EPA / Play
18
20
EPA / Pass
17
19
EPA / Rush
20
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
12
Interceptions / Game
9
22
Fumbles / Game
27
28
Turnover EPA / Game
21
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
17
4th Down Efficiency
19
12
RZ Efficiency
24
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Dolphins
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U