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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ eagles week 3, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
1-1
34
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
79°F
4 mph
37
PHIEagles
2-0
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
79°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
14
6
7
7
34
Eagles
7
14
6
10
37

Spread

WAS logo
+4

Total

OVER
50.5

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
511
379
Total Plays
76
66
Yards / Play
6.7
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.21
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
30/48(63%)
27/41(66%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
+0.36
+0.33
Rushing Yards
84
54
Rush Attempts
28
25
Yards / Rush
3.0
2.2
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.55
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
27
22
Passing 1st downs
18
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
5
3rd Down %
53%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.56
-4.36
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
131
70
Penalty EPA
-11.52
-5.12

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model72.1%
Spread Pick
PHI logo
Eagles-4.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+19.2%
Cover Probability
61.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+213
Home nfelo
1,569
Away nfelo
1,447
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+57.1
Home QB Adjustment
+3.0
Away QB Adjustment
-54.1
Market Regression
-6.0
Final Difference
165.1
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-54.1
Value
Ptile
12/16
5.9
86
12/15
3.9
77
12/22
-2.6
35
12/29
-12.9
1
N. Foles headshot

N. Foles

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+3.0
Value
Ptile
11/10
3.9
77
11/17
3.9
77
12/01
1.3
60
12/08
0.5
53
12/15
6.1
87
12/22
5.9
86
12/29
-3.3
29
01/04
2.4
67
09/07
-1.7
38
09/15
2.7
70

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Commanders logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
26
22
Yards / Game
13
28
Passing Yards / Game
9
7
Rushing Yards / Game
18
15

EPA

EPA / Play
23
7
EPA / Pass
25
17
EPA / Rush
18
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
19
Interceptions / Game
26
22
Fumbles / Game
32
1
Turnover EPA / Game
7
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
12
4th Down Efficiency
32
4
RZ Efficiency
27
20
Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Eagles logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
3
29
Yards / Game
4
19
Passing Yards / Game
19
16
Rushing Yards / Game
8
12

EPA

EPA / Play
14
31
EPA / Pass
15
32
EPA / Rush
21
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
2
Interceptions / Game
32
28
Fumbles / Game
31
16
Turnover EPA / Game
1
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
24
4th Down Efficiency
2
24
RZ Efficiency
24
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/07
-7
L
L
O
11/17
-8
L
L
U
11/25
-21
L
L
U
12/01
-7
L
L
U
12/08
-35
L
L
O
12/15
-1
L
W
O
12/22
-1
L
W
U
12/29
-14
L
L
U
09/07
-11
L
L
U
09/14
31
W
W
O
PHI logo

Eagles

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/10
14
W
W
U
11/17
8
W
W
U
12/01
3
W
L
U
12/08
14
W
W
P
12/15
-18
L
L
O
12/22
43
W
W
O
12/29
2
W
L
U
01/04
-2
L
L
U
09/07
17
W
W
O
09/15
3
W
W
O