WASCommanders
1-2
17
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
63°F
13 mph
12
PHIEagles
2-1
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
63°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
14
3
0
0
17
Eagles
0
6
0
6
12
Spread
+5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
293
353
Total Plays
55
69
Yards / Play
5.3
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.07
Passing Yards
124
243
Comp/Att
8/19(42%)
27/43(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.03
+0.09
Rushing Yards
169
110
Rush Attempts
35
25
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
21
Passing 1st downs
5
14
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
45%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.38
-5.45
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-1
-7
Sack EPA
-0.98
-1.84
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
30
80
Penalty EPA
-3.32
-9.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+104
Home nfelo
1,559
Away nfelo
1,470
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-18.9
Home QB Adjustment
-7.3
Away QB Adjustment
+11.6
Market Regression
-15.0
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
D. McNabb
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+11.6
M. Vick
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-7.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
21
Yards / Game
17
12
Passing Yards / Game
4
23
Rushing Yards / Game
30
15
EPA
EPA / Play
28
24
EPA / Pass
25
23
EPA / Rush
19
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
4
Interceptions / Game
21
3
Fumbles / Game
22
9
Turnover EPA / Game
9
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
21
4th Down Efficiency
12
9
RZ Efficiency
20
32
Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
22
Yards / Game
2
31
Passing Yards / Game
3
31
Rushing Yards / Game
5
25
EPA
EPA / Play
5
12
EPA / Pass
11
26
EPA / Rush
1
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
5
Interceptions / Game
12
19
Fumbles / Game
20
10
Turnover EPA / Game
25
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
8
4th Down Efficiency
1
29
RZ Efficiency
15
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
2-8
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Eagles
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U