WASCommanders
2-1
31
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
70°F
034
PHIEagles
3-0
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Commanders
7
10
0
14
0
31
Eagles
7
3
11
10
3
34
Spread
+9
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
365
417
Total Plays
74
68
Yards / Play
4.9
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.24
Passing Yards
258
311
Comp/Att
29/41(71%)
25/37(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
8.4
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.29
Rushing Yards
107
106
Rush Attempts
28
28
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.26
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
23
Passing 1st downs
12
14
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
5
3
3rd Down %
47%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
12
Red Zone %
80%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-32
-8
Sack EPA
-6.85
-3.04
Penalties
7
11
Penalty Yards
41
81
Penalty EPA
-10.50
-9.88
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+197
Home nfelo
1,615
Away nfelo
1,469
Home Field
+23.6
Base HFA
+42.9
Divisional Adj
-19.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+28.2
Home QB Adjustment
+1.8
Away QB Adjustment
-26.4
Market Regression
+31.5
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
S. Howell
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-26.4
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
30
Yards / Game
24
26
Passing Yards / Game
6
32
Rushing Yards / Game
26
11
EPA
EPA / Play
26
30
EPA / Pass
26
29
EPA / Rush
10
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
22
Interceptions / Game
30
26
Fumbles / Game
22
24
Turnover EPA / Game
2
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
30
4th Down Efficiency
10
25
RZ Efficiency
6
29
Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
32
Yards / Game
9
32
Passing Yards / Game
10
7
Rushing Yards / Game
9
27
EPA
EPA / Play
7
32
EPA / Pass
10
32
EPA / Rush
6
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
2
Interceptions / Game
24
29
Fumbles / Game
25
13
Turnover EPA / Game
8
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
26
4th Down Efficiency
1
29
RZ Efficiency
9
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
5-4-1
SU
4-6
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Eagles
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U