WASCommanders
4-5
32
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
43°F
6 mph
21
PHIEagles
8-0
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
43°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
7
13
3
3
26
Eagles
14
0
0
7
21
Spread
+11
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
330
264
Total Plays
81
47
Yards / Play
4.1
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.15
Passing Yards
178
170
Comp/Att
17/29(59%)
17/26(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.09
-0.39
Rushing Yards
152
94
Rush Attempts
49
20
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.05
+0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
18
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
12
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
57%
63%
3rd Down Conversions
12
5
3rd Down Attempts
21
8
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
3
Turnover EPA
-8.19
-15.92
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-33
-5
Sack EPA
-7.01
-1.06
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
58
75
Penalty EPA
-6.78
-8.98
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+241
Home nfelo
1,613
Away nfelo
1,427
Home Field
+21.6
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
-17.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+33.9
Home QB Adjustment
+18.3
Away QB Adjustment
-15.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
T. Heinicke
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-15.6
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+18.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
7
Yards / Game
20
1
Passing Yards / Game
16
3
Rushing Yards / Game
12
16
EPA
EPA / Play
22
5
EPA / Pass
25
1
EPA / Rush
21
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
15
Interceptions / Game
25
9
Fumbles / Game
20
6
Turnover EPA / Game
21
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
12
4th Down Efficiency
21
19
RZ Efficiency
23
17
Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
8
Yards / Game
3
3
Passing Yards / Game
6
10
Rushing Yards / Game
4
11
EPA
EPA / Play
2
8
EPA / Pass
6
8
EPA / Rush
1
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
8
Interceptions / Game
3
29
Fumbles / Game
17
29
Turnover EPA / Game
14
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
1
4th Down Efficiency
4
14
RZ Efficiency
3
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Eagles
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U