WASCommanders
3-6
16
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
64°F
7 mph
24
PHIEagles
5-5
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
64°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
0
0
16
16
Eagles
7
10
7
0
24
Spread
-4.5
Total
UNDER
54.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
431
402
Total Plays
79
62
Yards / Play
5.5
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.19
Passing Yards
238
276
Comp/Att
17/36(47%)
17/26(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
10.6
EPA / Pass
-0.10
+0.53
Rushing Yards
193
126
Rush Attempts
39
33
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.18
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
22
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
11
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
47%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
13
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.88
--
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-28
-22
Sack EPA
-9.48
-3.19
Penalties
4
9
Penalty Yards
39
68
Penalty EPA
-6.19
-0.82
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+123
Home nfelo
1,578
Away nfelo
1,474
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-14.8
Home QB Adjustment
-14.9
Away QB Adjustment
-0.1
Market Regression
+27.3
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-0.1
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-14.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
18
Yards / Game
10
30
Passing Yards / Game
19
31
Rushing Yards / Game
5
13
EPA
EPA / Play
28
21
EPA / Pass
22
20
EPA / Rush
11
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
9
Interceptions / Game
20
6
Fumbles / Game
29
3
Turnover EPA / Game
7
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
24
4th Down Efficiency
29
11
RZ Efficiency
18
12
Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
30
Yards / Game
2
19
Passing Yards / Game
4
26
Rushing Yards / Game
1
17
EPA
EPA / Play
4
24
EPA / Pass
5
27
EPA / Rush
2
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
14
Interceptions / Game
3
14
Fumbles / Game
12
11
Turnover EPA / Game
23
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
4
4th Down Efficiency
11
29
RZ Efficiency
13
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Eagles
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U