WASCommanders
3-7
24
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
56°F
10 mph
27
PHIEagles
6-4
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
56°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
7
7
7
3
24
Eagles
10
6
0
11
27
Spread
+10
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
303
383
Total Plays
63
68
Yards / Play
4.8
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.01
Passing Yards
221
260
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
21/37(57%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.07
+0.07
Rushing Yards
82
123
Rush Attempts
25
29
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
17
Passing 1st downs
11
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
47%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
15
Red Zone %
75%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.84
-3.25
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-10
-2
Sack EPA
-0.09
-1.55
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
39
60
Penalty EPA
-4.02
-9.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+229
Home nfelo
1,614
Away nfelo
1,421
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.9
Home QB Adjustment
-5.1
Away QB Adjustment
-6.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
J. Campbell
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-6.0
D. McNabb
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-5.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
19
Yards / Game
22
16
Passing Yards / Game
14
32
Rushing Yards / Game
28
12
EPA
EPA / Play
21
9
EPA / Pass
18
9
EPA / Rush
23
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
10
Interceptions / Game
16
4
Fumbles / Game
4
14
Turnover EPA / Game
24
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
4
4th Down Efficiency
30
25
RZ Efficiency
8
25
Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
17
Yards / Game
11
11
Passing Yards / Game
5
27
Rushing Yards / Game
24
15
EPA
EPA / Play
14
20
EPA / Pass
12
25
EPA / Rush
10
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
5
Interceptions / Game
8
26
Fumbles / Game
27
16
Turnover EPA / Game
23
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
21
4th Down Efficiency
28
1
RZ Efficiency
27
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Eagles
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U