nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ eagles week 18, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

WAS logo
WASCommanders
4-12
24
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
35°F
9 mph
17
PHIEagles
11-5
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
35°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
10
0
14
24
Eagles
0
7
10
0
17

Spread

WAS logo
+3

Total

OVER
38.5

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
274
307
Total Plays
63
62
Yards / Play
4.3
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.09
Passing Yards
--
227
Comp/Att
14/22(64%)
21/40(53%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.20
-0.15
Rushing Yards
143
80
Rush Attempts
41
19
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
25
18
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
6
--
3rd Down %
55%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
75%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.27
-3.53
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-14
Sack EPA
--
-1.77
Penalties
4
9
Penalty Yards
19
123
Penalty EPA
-3.51
-11.66

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model69.9%
Spread Pick
PHI logo
Eagles-3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+13.3%
Cover Probability
55.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+233
Home nfelo
1,629
Away nfelo
1,422
Home Field
+24.4
Base HFA
+44.5
Divisional Adj
-20.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.8
Home QB Adjustment
-102.9
Away QB Adjustment
-103.8
Market Regression
-57.0
Final Difference
146.5
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

J. Johnson headshot

J. Johnson

Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-103.8
Value
Ptile
10/04
-3.3
29
10/11
-2.7
34
10/18
-4.5
22
10/25
-8.4
6
12/04
0.8
57
12/16
-0.7
42
12/22
-5.5
16
12/30
-13.5
1
12/26
2.9
75
12/25
-3.3
27
T. McKee headshot

T. McKee

Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-102.9
Value
Ptile
01/05
2.8
68

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Commanders logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
21
6
Yards / Game
22
12
Passing Yards / Game
15
15
Rushing Yards / Game
4
20

EPA

EPA / Play
16
9
EPA / Pass
20
7
EPA / Rush
8
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
21
Interceptions / Game
16
12
Fumbles / Game
22
14
Turnover EPA / Game
4
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
22
4th Down Efficiency
10
3
RZ Efficiency
4
11
Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Eagles logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
19
27
Yards / Game
24
32
Passing Yards / Game
19
27
Rushing Yards / Game
16
30

EPA

EPA / Play
19
30
EPA / Pass
14
30
EPA / Rush
15
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
18
Interceptions / Game
1
26
Fumbles / Game
8
31
Turnover EPA / Game
29
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
23
4th Down Efficiency
18
23
RZ Efficiency
1
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
-22
L
L
O
10/27
-21
L
L
U
11/02
-24
L
L
O
11/09
-22
L
L
O
11/16
-3
L
L
U
11/30
-1
L
W
O
12/07
-31
L
L
U
12/14
8
W
W
O
12/20
-11
L
L
O
12/25
-7
L
W
O
PHI logo

Eagles

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
6
W
W
O
10/26
18
W
W
O
11/10
3
W
W
U
11/16
7
W
W
U
11/23
-3
L
L
U
11/28
-9
L
L
U
12/08
-3
L
L
U
12/14
31
W
W
U
12/20
11
W
W
O
12/28
1
W
W
U