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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ eagles week 18, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
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  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
4-12
+4.0
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
70°F
0
-4.0
PHIEagles
11-5
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
70°F
0

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
PHI logo
Eagles-4.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+19.2%
Cover Probability
61.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+237
Home nfelo
1,632
Away nfelo
1,421
Home Field
+24.4
Base HFA
+44.5
Divisional Adj
-20.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.4
Home QB Adjustment
-101.4
Away QB Adjustment
-103.8
Market Regression
-30.5
Final Difference
174.7
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

J. Johnson headshot

J. Johnson

Proj. Value
-3.8
Team Elo Adj
-103.8
Value
Ptile
10/04
-3.3
29
10/11
-2.7
34
10/18
-4.5
22
10/25
-8.4
6
12/04
0.8
57
12/16
-0.7
42
12/22
-5.5
16
12/30
-13.5
1
12/26
2.9
75
12/25
-3.3
27
T. McKee headshot

T. McKee

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-101.4
Value
Ptile
01/05
2.8
68

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Commanders logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
25
3
Yards / Game
21
13
Passing Yards / Game
12
16
Rushing Yards / Game
4
21

EPA

EPA / Play
17
7
EPA / Pass
22
2
EPA / Rush
7
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
21
Interceptions / Game
16
15
Fumbles / Game
23
12
Turnover EPA / Game
6
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
17
4th Down Efficiency
12
4
RZ Efficiency
7
8
Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Eagles logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
19
27
Yards / Game
24
31
Passing Yards / Game
21
26
Rushing Yards / Game
17
31

EPA

EPA / Play
19
31
EPA / Pass
13
32
EPA / Rush
19
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
15
Interceptions / Game
1
27
Fumbles / Game
15
29
Turnover EPA / Game
24
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
23
4th Down Efficiency
10
27
RZ Efficiency
1
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
-22
L
L
O
10/27
-21
L
L
U
11/02
-24
L
L
O
11/09
-22
L
L
O
11/16
-3
L
L
U
11/30
-1
L
W
O
12/07
-31
L
L
U
12/14
8
W
W
O
12/20
-11
L
L
O
12/25
-7
L
W
O
PHI logo

Eagles

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
6
W
W
O
10/26
18
W
W
O
11/10
3
W
W
U
11/16
7
W
W
U
11/23
-3
L
L
U
11/28
-9
L
L
U
12/08
-3
L
L
U
12/14
31
W
W
U
12/20
11
W
W
O
12/28
1
W
W
U