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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ falcons week 4, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
2-1
27
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0
34
ATLFalcons
1-2
ATL logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
10
6
11
27
Falcons
10
7
14
3
34

Spread

ATL logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
296
435
Total Plays
52
64
Yards / Play
5.7
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.27
Passing Yards
149
307
Comp/Att
16/28(57%)
20/26(77%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
11.8
EPA / Pass
-0.00
+0.70
Rushing Yards
147
128
Rush Attempts
22
37
Yards / Rush
6.7
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.22
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
17
24
Passing 1st downs
8
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
13%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
1
6
3rd Down Attempts
8
12
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.52
-6.63
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-9
-6
Sack EPA
-1.72
-1.31
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
50
45
Penalty EPA
-5.47
-4.16

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model55.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+8
Home nfelo
1,483
Away nfelo
1,553
Home Field
+52.3
Base HFA
+38.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+26.0
Home QB Adjustment
-16.6
Away QB Adjustment
-42.6
Market Regression
+55.9
Final Difference
35.5
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

M. Mariota headshot

M. Mariota

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-42.6
Value
Ptile
10/09
-2.5
32
10/16
6.6
91
10/23
-2.5
32
10/30
2.8
74
11/06
-4.9
18
11/10
-2.7
30
11/20
1.1
60
11/27
-0.1
52
12/04
-3.1
28
09/21
4.5
80
M. Penix headshot

M. Penix

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-16.6
Value
Ptile
12/22
-3.2
27
12/29
-4.1
22
01/05
2.5
66
09/07
4.6
81
09/14
-6.2
12
09/21
-7.5
7

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Falcons Defense
Commanders logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
25
20
Yards / Game
21
14
Passing Yards / Game
12
25
Rushing Yards / Game
4
26

EPA

EPA / Play
17
20
EPA / Pass
22
13
EPA / Rush
7
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
30
Interceptions / Game
16
6
Fumbles / Game
23
24
Turnover EPA / Game
6
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
20
4th Down Efficiency
12
17
RZ Efficiency
7
10
Falcons Offense vs Commanders Defense
Falcons logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
24
27
Yards / Game
13
31
Passing Yards / Game
17
26
Rushing Yards / Game
5
31

EPA

EPA / Play
24
31
EPA / Pass
19
32
EPA / Rush
15
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
15
Interceptions / Game
3
27
Fumbles / Game
28
29
Turnover EPA / Game
22
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
23
4th Down Efficiency
24
27
RZ Efficiency
9
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/15
1
W
L
U
12/22
3
W
W
O
12/29
6
W
W
O
01/05
4
W
L
U
01/12
3
W
W
U
01/18
14
W
W
O
01/26
-32
L
L
O
09/07
15
W
W
U
09/11
-9
L
L
U
09/21
17
W
W
O
ATL logo

Falcons

3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
-32
L
L
U
12/01
-4
L
L
U
12/08
-21
L
L
O
12/16
6
W
L
U
12/22
27
W
W
U
12/29
-6
L
L
O
01/05
-6
L
L
O
09/07
-3
L
L
U
09/14
16
W
W
U
09/21
-30
L
L
U