WASCommanders
2-1
27
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
034
ATLFalcons
1-2
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
10
6
11
27
Falcons
10
7
14
3
34
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
296
435
Total Plays
52
64
Yards / Play
5.7
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.27
Passing Yards
149
307
Comp/Att
16/28(57%)
20/26(77%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
11.8
EPA / Pass
-0.00
+0.70
Rushing Yards
147
128
Rush Attempts
22
37
Yards / Rush
6.7
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.22
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
24
Passing 1st downs
8
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
13%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
1
6
3rd Down Attempts
8
12
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.52
-6.63
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-9
-6
Sack EPA
-1.72
-1.31
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
50
45
Penalty EPA
-5.47
-4.16
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model55.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+5
Home nfelo
1,481
Away nfelo
1,554
Home Field
+52.1
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+26.0
Home QB Adjustment
-16.6
Away QB Adjustment
-42.6
Market Regression
+56.7
Final Difference
34.9
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
-42.6
M. Penix
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-16.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
14
Yards / Game
12
2
Passing Yards / Game
18
6
Rushing Yards / Game
2
15
EPA
EPA / Play
7
16
EPA / Pass
20
6
EPA / Rush
2
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
28
Interceptions / Game
2
8
Fumbles / Game
7
16
Turnover EPA / Game
27
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
10
4th Down Efficiency
14
29
RZ Efficiency
3
24
Falcons Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
18
Yards / Game
7
24
Passing Yards / Game
20
30
Rushing Yards / Game
7
14
EPA
EPA / Play
22
22
EPA / Pass
22
27
EPA / Rush
19
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
11
Interceptions / Game
17
24
Fumbles / Game
29
25
Turnover EPA / Game
18
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
6
4th Down Efficiency
22
15
RZ Efficiency
25
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Falcons
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U