WASCommanders
2-1
27
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
034
ATLFalcons
1-2
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
10
6
11
27
Falcons
10
7
14
3
34
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
296
435
Total Plays
52
64
Yards / Play
5.7
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.27
Passing Yards
149
307
Comp/Att
16/28(57%)
20/26(77%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
11.8
EPA / Pass
-0.00
+0.70
Rushing Yards
147
128
Rush Attempts
22
37
Yards / Rush
6.7
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.22
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
24
Passing 1st downs
8
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
13%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
1
6
3rd Down Attempts
8
12
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.52
-6.63
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-9
-6
Sack EPA
-1.72
-1.31
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
50
45
Penalty EPA
-5.47
-4.16
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model55.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+5
Home nfelo
1,481
Away nfelo
1,554
Home Field
+52.3
Base HFA
+38.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+26.0
Home QB Adjustment
-16.6
Away QB Adjustment
-42.6
Market Regression
+56.6
Final Difference
34.9
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
-42.6
M. Penix
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-16.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
19
Yards / Game
18
17
Passing Yards / Game
12
18
Rushing Yards / Game
6
27
EPA
EPA / Play
12
22
EPA / Pass
16
16
EPA / Rush
11
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
29
Interceptions / Game
14
11
Fumbles / Game
23
25
Turnover EPA / Game
9
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
16
4th Down Efficiency
16
21
RZ Efficiency
2
20
Falcons Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
28
Yards / Game
16
30
Passing Yards / Game
22
20
Rushing Yards / Game
13
26
EPA
EPA / Play
27
30
EPA / Pass
23
31
EPA / Rush
16
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
14
Interceptions / Game
3
25
Fumbles / Game
29
28
Turnover EPA / Game
23
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
24
4th Down Efficiency
28
14
RZ Efficiency
12
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Falcons
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U