WASCommanders
2-5
17
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
031
ATLFalcons
4-3
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
3
7
7
17
Falcons
8
10
0
7
25
Spread
-9
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
312
306
Total Plays
64
54
Yards / Play
4.9
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.09
+0.12
Passing Yards
176
125
Comp/Att
19/27(70%)
17/24(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.27
-0.26
Rushing Yards
136
181
Rush Attempts
32
27
Yards / Rush
4.3
6.7
EPA / Rush
+0.11
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
18
Passing 1st downs
11
6
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
56%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.66
-4.84
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-32
-10
Sack EPA
-8.08
-3.87
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
88
54
Penalty EPA
-12.41
-7.16
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+179
Home nfelo
1,547
Away nfelo
1,411
Home Field
+35.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+7.5
Home QB Adjustment
-0.9
Away QB Adjustment
-8.3
Market Regression
-21.1
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
J. Campbell
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-8.3
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
13
Yards / Game
22
20
Passing Yards / Game
14
22
Rushing Yards / Game
28
9
EPA
EPA / Play
21
14
EPA / Pass
18
24
EPA / Rush
23
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
24
Interceptions / Game
16
16
Fumbles / Game
4
12
Turnover EPA / Game
24
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
32
4th Down Efficiency
30
13
RZ Efficiency
8
16
Falcons Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
17
Yards / Game
16
11
Passing Yards / Game
29
27
Rushing Yards / Game
13
15
EPA
EPA / Play
15
20
EPA / Pass
11
25
EPA / Rush
13
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
5
Interceptions / Game
18
26
Fumbles / Game
8
16
Turnover EPA / Game
14
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
21
4th Down Efficiency
3
1
RZ Efficiency
13
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
2-5-3
O/U
Falcons
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-3-3
O/U