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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ falcons week 9, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
2-5
17
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0
31
ATLFalcons
4-3
ATL logo
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
3
7
7
17
Falcons
8
10
0
7
25

Spread

ATL logo
-9

Total

OVER
41

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
312
306
Total Plays
64
54
Yards / Play
4.9
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.09
+0.12
Passing Yards
176
125
Comp/Att
19/27(70%)
17/24(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.27
-0.26
Rushing Yards
136
181
Rush Attempts
32
27
Yards / Rush
4.3
6.7
EPA / Rush
+0.11
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
17
18
Passing 1st downs
11
6
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
56%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.66
-4.84
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-32
-10
Sack EPA
-8.08
-3.87
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
88
54
Penalty EPA
-12.41
-7.16

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0

Win Probability

Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+182
Home nfelo
1,547
Away nfelo
1,408
Home Field
+35.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+7.5
Home QB Adjustment
-0.9
Away QB Adjustment
-8.3
Market Regression
-21.8
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0

Quarterbacks

J. Campbell headshot

J. Campbell

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-8.3
Value
Ptile
12/14
1.4
62
12/21
-1.7
39
12/28
4.2
78
09/13
1.5
59
09/20
2.7
67
09/27
4.6
79
10/04
-6.3
13
10/11
-3.7
26
10/18
-6.8
12
10/26
0.3
52
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.9
Value
Ptile
12/21
-2.1
36
12/28
-5.9
11
01/03
-3.6
24
09/13
2.1
64
09/20
5.8
86
09/27
0.4
53
10/11
9.0
95
10/18
-0.8
45
10/25
-5.2
19
11/02
-5.8
15

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Falcons Defense
Commanders logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
26
13
Yards / Game
22
20
Passing Yards / Game
14
22
Rushing Yards / Game
28
9

EPA

EPA / Play
21
14
EPA / Pass
18
24
EPA / Rush
23
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
24
Interceptions / Game
16
16
Fumbles / Game
4
12
Turnover EPA / Game
24
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
32
4th Down Efficiency
30
13
RZ Efficiency
8
16
Falcons Offense vs Commanders Defense
Falcons logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
13
17
Yards / Game
16
11
Passing Yards / Game
29
27
Rushing Yards / Game
13
15

EPA

EPA / Play
15
20
EPA / Pass
11
25
EPA / Rush
13
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
5
Interceptions / Game
18
26
Fumbles / Game
8
16
Turnover EPA / Game
14
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
21
4th Down Efficiency
3
1
RZ Efficiency
13
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
2-5-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/14
-7
L
L
P
12/21
7
W
W
P
12/28
-3
L
L
P
09/13
-6
L
P
O
09/20
2
W
L
U
09/27
-5
L
L
U
10/04
3
W
L
U
10/11
-3
L
W
U
10/18
-8
L
L
U
10/26
-10
L
L
O
ATL logo

Falcons

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-3-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/21
7
W
W
P
12/28
4
W
L
P
01/03
-6
L
L
P
09/13
12
W
W
U
09/20
8
W
W
O
09/27
-16
L
L
U
10/11
35
W
W
O
10/18
7
W
W
U
10/25
-16
L
L
O
11/02
-8
L
W
O