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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ giants week 7, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
3-3
7
TBD
MetLife Stadium
54°F
14 mph
14
NYGGiants
1-5
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
54°F
14 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
0
7
0
7
Giants
0
14
0
0
14

Spread

NYG logo
+3

Total

UNDER
37

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
273
356
Total Plays
67
65
Yards / Play
4.1
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.09
Passing Yards
197
250
Comp/Att
22/42(52%)
18/29(62%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
8.6
EPA / Pass
-0.35
+0.17
Rushing Yards
76
106
Rush Attempts
19
32
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
14
16
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
7%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
1
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+1.01
-4.73
Sacks
6
4
Sack Yards
-52
-29
Sack EPA
-10.45
-5.69
Penalties
10
4
Penalty Yards
75
40
Penalty EPA
-12.61
-5.24

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-45
Home nfelo
1,431
Away nfelo
1,484
Home Field
+38.8
Base HFA
+43.1
Divisional Adj
-19.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-30.7
Home QB Adjustment
-42.6
Away QB Adjustment
-11.9
Market Regression
-52.3
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

S. Howell headshot

S. Howell

Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-11.9
Value
Ptile
01/08
0.1
53
09/10
-5.5
16
09/17
3.3
72
09/24
-15.6
0
10/01
2.4
66
10/05
2.7
68
10/15
-4.4
22
T. Taylor headshot

T. Taylor

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-42.6
Value
Ptile
09/16
-0.4
43
09/20
-9.9
3
09/13
-5.0
15
09/12
5.1
84
09/19
1.6
65
11/07
-12.3
1
11/21
0.5
56
11/28
-5.9
15
12/05
-10.5
3
10/15
-0.2
47

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Commanders logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
25
26
Yards / Game
24
27
Passing Yards / Game
6
5
Rushing Yards / Game
26
29

EPA

EPA / Play
26
17
EPA / Pass
26
12
EPA / Rush
10
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
1
Interceptions / Game
30
3
Fumbles / Game
22
1
Turnover EPA / Game
2
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
10
4th Down Efficiency
10
20
RZ Efficiency
6
24
Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Giants logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
30
32
Yards / Game
29
32
Passing Yards / Game
29
7
Rushing Yards / Game
16
27

EPA

EPA / Play
30
32
EPA / Pass
29
32
EPA / Rush
29
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
2
Interceptions / Game
15
29
Fumbles / Game
6
13
Turnover EPA / Game
21
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
26
4th Down Efficiency
20
29
RZ Efficiency
31
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/18
-8
L
L
U
12/24
-17
L
L
O
01/01
-14
L
L
U
01/08
20
W
W
U
09/10
4
W
L
U
09/17
2
W
W
O
09/24
-34
L
L
U
10/01
-3
L
W
O
10/05
-20
L
L
O
10/15
8
W
W
U
NYG logo

Giants

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
28
W
W
O
01/08
-6
L
W
U
01/15
7
W
W
O
01/21
-31
L
L
U
09/10
-40
L
L
U
09/17
3
W
L
O
09/21
-18
L
L
U
10/02
-21
L
L
U
10/08
-15
L
L
U
10/15
-5
L
W
U