WASCommanders
3-3
7
TBD
MetLife Stadium
54°F
14 mph
14
NYGGiants
1-5
TBD
MetLife Stadium
54°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
0
7
0
7
Giants
0
14
0
0
14
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
37
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
273
356
Total Plays
67
65
Yards / Play
4.1
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.09
Passing Yards
197
250
Comp/Att
22/42(52%)
18/29(62%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
8.6
EPA / Pass
-0.35
+0.17
Rushing Yards
76
106
Rush Attempts
19
32
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
16
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
7%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
1
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+1.01
-4.73
Sacks
6
4
Sack Yards
-52
-29
Sack EPA
-10.45
-5.69
Penalties
10
4
Penalty Yards
75
40
Penalty EPA
-12.61
-5.24
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-43
Home nfelo
1,432
Away nfelo
1,484
Home Field
+38.8
Base HFA
+43.1
Divisional Adj
-19.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-30.5
Home QB Adjustment
-42.7
Away QB Adjustment
-12.1
Market Regression
-52.3
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
S. Howell
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-12.1
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-42.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
26
Yards / Game
24
27
Passing Yards / Game
6
5
Rushing Yards / Game
26
29
EPA
EPA / Play
26
17
EPA / Pass
26
12
EPA / Rush
10
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
1
Interceptions / Game
30
3
Fumbles / Game
22
1
Turnover EPA / Game
2
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
10
4th Down Efficiency
10
20
RZ Efficiency
6
24
Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
32
Yards / Game
29
32
Passing Yards / Game
29
7
Rushing Yards / Game
16
27
EPA
EPA / Play
30
32
EPA / Pass
29
32
EPA / Rush
29
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
2
Interceptions / Game
15
29
Fumbles / Game
6
13
Turnover EPA / Game
21
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
26
4th Down Efficiency
20
29
RZ Efficiency
31
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Giants
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U