WASCommanders
4-2
20
TBD
MetLife Stadium
51°F
11 mph
13
NYGGiants
1-6
TBD
MetLife Stadium
51°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
7
0
3
10
20
Giants
0
3
0
10
13
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
360
303
Total Plays
65
68
Yards / Play
5.5
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.13
Passing Yards
--
266
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
30/47(64%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.7
EPA / Pass
+0.15
-0.18
Rushing Yards
182
37
Rush Attempts
33
14
Yards / Rush
5.5
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
1
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
40%
14%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
33%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.21
-6.34
Sacks
--
7
Sack Yards
--
-50
Sack EPA
--
-11.54
Penalties
8
11
Penalty Yards
90
102
Penalty EPA
-8.08
-15.72
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model50.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+20
Home nfelo
1,447
Away nfelo
1,488
Home Field
+52.0
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.9
Home QB Adjustment
+2.0
Away QB Adjustment
-6.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-2.1
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-6.9
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
23
Yards / Game
28
24
Passing Yards / Game
26
18
Rushing Yards / Game
17
21
EPA
EPA / Play
25
28
EPA / Pass
28
26
EPA / Rush
12
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
10
Interceptions / Game
23
7
Fumbles / Game
3
19
Turnover EPA / Game
16
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
27
4th Down Efficiency
17
32
RZ Efficiency
24
13
Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
15
Yards / Game
16
17
Passing Yards / Game
8
19
Rushing Yards / Game
24
16
EPA
EPA / Play
13
21
EPA / Pass
15
15
EPA / Rush
11
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
12
Interceptions / Game
14
11
Fumbles / Game
3
10
Turnover EPA / Game
22
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
29
4th Down Efficiency
10
2
RZ Efficiency
29
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Giants
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U