nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ giants week 14, 2003

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

WAS logo
WASCommanders
4-8
20
TBD
Giants Stadium
27°F
15 mph
7
NYGGiants
4-8
NYG logo
TBD
Giants Stadium
27°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
3
7
7
3
20
Giants
7
0
0
0
7

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
288
220
Total Plays
69
54
Yards / Play
4.2
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.26
Passing Yards
138
100
Comp/Att
13/19(68%)
12/25(48%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
4.0
EPA / Pass
+0.47
-0.64
Rushing Yards
150
120
Rush Attempts
48
23
Yards / Rush
3.1
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
20
15
Passing 1st downs
10
7
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
50%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-13.38
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-16
-45
Sack EPA
-4.26
-13.26
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
35
55
Penalty EPA
-1.13
-5.03

Preview data is limited for games before 2009

Model projections and totals are not available before 2009, meaning preview data is limited to spread and margin trends, and team stats.

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
N/A

Win Probability

MarketN/A
ModelN/A
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
Home nfelo
Away nfelo
Home Field
Base HFA
Divisional Adj
Home Bye Adj
Away Bye Adj
Surface Adj
Time Adj
Net QB Adjustment
Home QB Adjustment
Away QB Adjustment
Market Regression
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

Quarterback Data Not Available
Quarterback Data Not Available

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Commanders logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
21
29
Yards / Game
23
22
Passing Yards / Game
15
30
Rushing Yards / Game
25
18

EPA

EPA / Play
17
19
EPA / Pass
19
26
EPA / Rush
15
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
3
Interceptions / Game
13
30
Fumbles / Game
19
8
Turnover EPA / Game
23
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
14
4th Down Efficiency
6
16
RZ Efficiency
14
19
Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Giants logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
30
24
Yards / Game
20
25
Passing Yards / Game
4
7
Rushing Yards / Game
28
25

EPA

EPA / Play
31
28
EPA / Pass
24
22
EPA / Rush
28
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
4
Interceptions / Game
25
12
Fumbles / Game
30
8
Turnover EPA / Game
2
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
24
4th Down Efficiency
32
32
RZ Efficiency
32
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/21
-3
L
L
P
09/28
3
W
L
P
10/05
-2
L
W
P
10/12
-22
L
L
P
10/19
-17
L
L
P
11/02
-7
L
L
P
11/09
7
W
W
P
11/16
-3
L
W
P
11/23
-1
L
W
P
11/30
-4
L
L
P
NYG logo

Giants

3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/21
3
W
W
P
10/05
-13
L
L
P
10/12
-11
L
L
P
10/19
-4
L
L
P
10/26
12
W
W
P
11/02
3
W
L
P
11/09
-20
L
L
P
11/16
-18
L
L
P
11/24
-6
L
P
P
11/30
-17
L
L
P