WASCommanders
4-9
23
TBD
MetLife Stadium
29°F
9 mph
10
NYGGiants
7-6
TBD
MetLife Stadium
29°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
3
14
3
3
23
Giants
0
3
0
7
10
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
300
324
Total Plays
65
61
Yards / Play
4.6
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.13
-0.15
Passing Yards
177
233
Comp/Att
15/24(63%)
23/40(57%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.35
-0.43
Rushing Yards
123
91
Rush Attempts
40
18
Yards / Rush
3.1
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
22
Passing 1st downs
9
15
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
53%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
9
Red Zone %
33%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.11
-13.83
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-8
-24
Sack EPA
-1.71
-6.03
Penalties
2
8
Penalty Yards
48
75
Penalty EPA
-5.01
-7.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+169
Home nfelo
1,533
Away nfelo
1,447
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+26.3
Home QB Adjustment
+23.1
Away QB Adjustment
-3.2
Market Regression
-29.6
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
R. Grossman
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-3.2
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+23.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
20
Yards / Game
16
22
Passing Yards / Game
8
27
Rushing Yards / Game
27
18
EPA
EPA / Play
22
24
EPA / Pass
22
26
EPA / Rush
15
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
23
Interceptions / Game
29
14
Fumbles / Game
24
11
Turnover EPA / Game
6
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
16
4th Down Efficiency
29
20
RZ Efficiency
28
21
Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
21
Yards / Game
8
12
Passing Yards / Game
3
21
Rushing Yards / Game
29
17
EPA
EPA / Play
5
20
EPA / Pass
5
19
EPA / Rush
26
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
12
Interceptions / Game
12
22
Fumbles / Game
16
28
Turnover EPA / Game
29
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
17
4th Down Efficiency
25
12
RZ Efficiency
9
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Giants
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U