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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ giants week 15, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
3-10
29
TBD
MetLife Stadium
27°F
13 mph
21
NYGGiants
2-11
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
27°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
3
13
0
7
23
Giants
0
7
7
7
21

Spread

WAS logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
340
384
Total Plays
58
67
Yards / Play
5.9
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.18
Passing Yards
195
238
Comp/Att
10/19(53%)
20/37(54%)
Yards / Pass
10.3
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.08
-0.01
Rushing Yards
145
146
Rush Attempts
37
29
Yards / Rush
3.9
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
19
22
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
27%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
3
2
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.29
-3.34
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-16
-8
Sack EPA
-8.53
-0.88
Penalties
11
6
Penalty Yards
67
62
Penalty EPA
-8.31
-4.56

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+60
Home nfelo
1,407
Away nfelo
1,425
Home Field
+53.8
Base HFA
+45.4
Divisional Adj
-20.4
Home Bye Adj
+13.0
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+24.2
Home QB Adjustment
-10.4
Away QB Adjustment
-34.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

M. Mariota headshot

M. Mariota

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-34.7
Value
Ptile
11/20
1.1
60
11/27
-0.1
52
12/04
-3.1
28
09/21
4.5
81
09/28
-2.8
31
10/27
-2.4
34
11/09
2.7
70
11/16
1.1
59
11/30
4.9
84
12/07
-7.9
5
J. Dart headshot

J. Dart

Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
-10.4
Value
Ptile
09/28
-1.6
39
10/05
1.2
60
10/09
4.5
80
10/19
0.7
57
10/26
-2.4
35
11/02
6.4
90
11/09
7.0
92
12/01
-1.2
41

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Commanders logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
21
26
Yards / Game
22
27
Passing Yards / Game
15
18
Rushing Yards / Game
4
31

EPA

EPA / Play
16
27
EPA / Pass
20
17
EPA / Rush
8
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
10
Interceptions / Game
16
23
Fumbles / Game
22
23
Turnover EPA / Game
4
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
13
4th Down Efficiency
10
29
RZ Efficiency
4
26
Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Giants logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
16
27
Yards / Game
13
32
Passing Yards / Game
8
27
Rushing Yards / Game
6
30

EPA

EPA / Play
15
30
EPA / Pass
18
30
EPA / Rush
5
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
18
Interceptions / Game
9
26
Fumbles / Game
12
31
Turnover EPA / Game
23
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
23
4th Down Efficiency
25
23
RZ Efficiency
27
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/28
-7
L
L
O
10/05
17
W
W
U
10/13
-1
L
L
U
10/19
-22
L
L
O
10/27
-21
L
L
U
11/02
-24
L
L
O
11/09
-22
L
L
O
11/16
-3
L
L
U
11/30
-1
L
W
O
12/07
-31
L
L
U
NYG logo

Giants

2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/28
3
W
W
U
10/05
-12
L
L
U
10/09
17
W
W
O
10/19
-1
L
W
O
10/26
-18
L
L
O
11/02
-10
L
L
O
11/09
-4
L
W
U
11/16
-7
L
W
O
11/23
-7
L
W
O
12/01
-18
L
L
O