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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ giants week 17, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
3-12
6
TBD
MetLife Stadium
40°F
2 mph
20
NYGGiants
6-9
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
40°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
6
0
0
6
Giants
0
10
7
3
20

Spread

NYG logo
-3.5

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
251
278
Total Plays
75
68
Yards / Play
3.3
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.41
-0.25
Passing Yards
160
156
Comp/Att
19/49(39%)
12/32(38%)
Yards / Pass
3.3
4.9
EPA / Pass
-0.46
-0.29
Rushing Yards
91
122
Rush Attempts
23
35
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.46
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
12
14
Passing 1st downs
7
7
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
25%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
20
14
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
4
3
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-14.13
-10.96
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-9
-7
Sack EPA
-5.95
-1.46
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
30
20
Penalty EPA
-2.23
-2.67

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+115
Home nfelo
1,454
Away nfelo
1,411
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+15.6
Home QB Adjustment
-31.5
Away QB Adjustment
-47.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-47.1
Value
Ptile
12/16
5.9
86
12/15
3.9
77
12/22
-2.6
35
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-31.5
Value
Ptile
10/10
-5.6
16
10/21
-2.3
37
10/27
-0.5
46
11/10
-7.9
8
11/17
-1.2
44
11/24
-3.0
31
12/01
-1.5
42
12/08
-3.6
27
12/15
-12.8
1
12/22
-3.0
32

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Commanders logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
23
17
Yards / Game
10
8
Passing Yards / Game
19
2
Rushing Yards / Game
5
12

EPA

EPA / Play
28
7
EPA / Pass
22
8
EPA / Rush
11
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
20
Interceptions / Game
20
12
Fumbles / Game
29
5
Turnover EPA / Game
7
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
22
4th Down Efficiency
29
3
RZ Efficiency
18
15
Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Giants logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
28
30
Yards / Game
29
19
Passing Yards / Game
13
26
Rushing Yards / Game
29
17

EPA

EPA / Play
32
24
EPA / Pass
28
27
EPA / Rush
32
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
14
Interceptions / Game
32
14
Fumbles / Game
31
11
Turnover EPA / Game
1
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
4
4th Down Efficiency
15
29
RZ Efficiency
30
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/20
4
W
W
O
10/27
-24
L
L
O
11/03
6
W
W
O
11/07
-7
L
L
O
11/17
-8
L
L
U
11/25
-21
L
L
U
12/01
-7
L
L
U
12/08
-35
L
L
O
12/15
-1
L
W
O
12/22
-1
L
W
U
NYG logo

Giants

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/10
-6
L
W
O
10/21
16
W
W
U
10/27
8
W
W
U
11/10
4
W
L
O
11/17
14
W
W
U
11/24
-3
L
L
O
12/01
7
W
W
U
12/08
-23
L
L
O
12/15
-23
L
L
U
12/22
3
W
W
U