WASCommanders
3-12
6
TBD
MetLife Stadium
40°F
2 mph
20
NYGGiants
6-9
TBD
MetLife Stadium
40°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
6
0
0
6
Giants
0
10
7
3
20
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
251
278
Total Plays
75
68
Yards / Play
3.3
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.41
-0.25
Passing Yards
160
156
Comp/Att
19/49(39%)
12/32(38%)
Yards / Pass
3.3
4.9
EPA / Pass
-0.46
-0.29
Rushing Yards
91
122
Rush Attempts
23
35
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.46
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
14
Passing 1st downs
7
7
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
25%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
20
14
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
3
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-14.13
-10.96
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-9
-7
Sack EPA
-5.95
-1.46
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
30
20
Penalty EPA
-2.23
-2.67
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+115
Home nfelo
1,454
Away nfelo
1,411
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+15.6
Home QB Adjustment
-31.5
Away QB Adjustment
-47.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-47.1
Value
Ptile
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-31.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
17
Yards / Game
10
8
Passing Yards / Game
19
2
Rushing Yards / Game
5
12
EPA
EPA / Play
28
7
EPA / Pass
22
8
EPA / Rush
11
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
20
Interceptions / Game
20
12
Fumbles / Game
29
5
Turnover EPA / Game
7
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
22
4th Down Efficiency
29
3
RZ Efficiency
18
15
Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
30
Yards / Game
29
19
Passing Yards / Game
13
26
Rushing Yards / Game
29
17
EPA
EPA / Play
32
24
EPA / Pass
28
27
EPA / Rush
32
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
14
Interceptions / Game
32
14
Fumbles / Game
31
11
Turnover EPA / Game
1
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
4
4th Down Efficiency
15
29
RZ Efficiency
30
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Giants
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U