WASCommanders
7-8
10
TBD
MetLife Stadium
16°F
16 mph
18
NYGGiants
2-13
TBD
MetLife Stadium
16°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
7
3
0
0
10
Giants
15
0
0
3
18
Spread
+5
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
197
381
Total Plays
56
75
Yards / Play
3.5
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.50
-0.26
Passing Yards
136
121
Comp/Att
20/37(54%)
10/29(34%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
4.2
EPA / Pass
-0.61
-0.47
Rushing Yards
61
260
Rush Attempts
16
44
Yards / Rush
3.8
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
17
Passing 1st downs
7
7
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
8%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
1
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-12.30
-6.10
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-22
-11
Sack EPA
-4.47
-1.52
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
35
--
Penalty EPA
-3.57
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market67.5%
Model63.7%
Spread Pick
Giants+5.0
Expected Value
+4.1%
Cover Probability
54.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-50
Home nfelo
1,366
Away nfelo
1,474
Home Field
+50.3
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
-25.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+7.3
Home QB Adjustment
-3.0
Away QB Adjustment
-10.3
Market Regression
-6.0
Final Difference
-97.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-10.3
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-3.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
27
Yards / Game
17
31
Passing Yards / Game
14
7
Rushing Yards / Game
28
26
EPA
EPA / Play
25
18
EPA / Pass
14
21
EPA / Rush
29
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
19
Interceptions / Game
17
15
Fumbles / Game
25
23
Turnover EPA / Game
6
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
21
4th Down Efficiency
6
4
RZ Efficiency
17
18
Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
27
Yards / Game
22
22
Passing Yards / Game
32
15
Rushing Yards / Game
26
32
EPA
EPA / Play
32
13
EPA / Pass
27
8
EPA / Rush
27
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
12
Interceptions / Game
20
9
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
16
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
7
4th Down Efficiency
25
23
RZ Efficiency
24
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Giants
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U