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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ giants week 17, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
7-8
10
TBD
MetLife Stadium
16°F
16 mph
18
NYGGiants
2-13
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
16°F
16 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
7
3
0
0
10
Giants
15
0
0
3
18

Spread

NYG logo
+5

Total

UNDER
41

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
197
381
Total Plays
56
75
Yards / Play
3.5
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.50
-0.26
Passing Yards
136
121
Comp/Att
20/37(54%)
10/29(34%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
4.2
EPA / Pass
-0.61
-0.47
Rushing Yards
61
260
Rush Attempts
16
44
Yards / Rush
3.8
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
10
17
Passing 1st downs
7
7
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
8%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
1
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-12.30
-6.10
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-22
-11
Sack EPA
-4.47
-1.52
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
35
--
Penalty EPA
-3.57
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market67.5%
Model63.5%
Spread Pick
NYG logo
Giants+5.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.1%
Cover Probability
54.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-47
Home nfelo
1,366
Away nfelo
1,471
Home Field
+51.0
Base HFA
+56.8
Divisional Adj
-25.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+7.3
Home QB Adjustment
-3.0
Away QB Adjustment
-10.3
Market Regression
-4.6
Final Difference
-96.3
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-10.3
Value
Ptile
10/23
3.9
80
10/29
-3.0
31
11/05
-4.3
23
11/12
5.5
86
11/19
7.3
91
11/23
-5.7
16
11/30
-3.5
27
12/10
-3.4
28
12/17
2.3
69
12/24
3.4
77
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-3.0
Value
Ptile
10/08
-4.5
22
10/15
-4.0
25
10/22
-3.5
27
11/05
-1.6
41
11/12
3.3
76
11/19
-1.7
40
11/23
-11.5
1
12/10
-1.4
43
12/17
9.1
96
12/24
-4.4
22

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Giants Defense
Commanders logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
16
27
Yards / Game
17
31
Passing Yards / Game
14
7
Rushing Yards / Game
28
26

EPA

EPA / Play
25
18
EPA / Pass
14
21
EPA / Rush
29
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
19
Interceptions / Game
17
15
Fumbles / Game
25
23
Turnover EPA / Game
6
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
21
4th Down Efficiency
6
4
RZ Efficiency
17
18
Giants Offense vs Commanders Defense
Giants logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
31
27
Yards / Game
22
22
Passing Yards / Game
32
15
Rushing Yards / Game
26
32

EPA

EPA / Play
32
13
EPA / Pass
27
8
EPA / Rush
27
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
12
Interceptions / Game
20
9
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
16
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
7
4th Down Efficiency
25
23
RZ Efficiency
24
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/23
-10
L
L
O
10/29
-14
L
L
O
11/05
3
W
W
U
11/12
-8
L
L
O
11/19
-3
L
W
O
11/23
10
W
W
U
11/30
-24
L
L
O
12/10
-17
L
L
U
12/17
5
W
W
U
12/24
16
W
W
U
NYG logo

Giants

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/15
13
W
W
U
10/22
-17
L
L
U
11/05
-34
L
L
O
11/12
-10
L
L
O
11/19
3
W
W
U
11/23
-10
L
L
U
12/03
-7
L
W
U
12/10
-20
L
L
U
12/17
-5
L
W
O
12/24
-23
L
L
U