WASCommanders
1-1
14
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
019
DETLions
0-2
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
0
7
7
14
Lions
7
6
0
6
19
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
390
381
Total Plays
57
75
Yards / Play
6.8
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.09
Passing Yards
325
227
Comp/Att
27/41(66%)
21/37(57%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.15
+0.11
Rushing Yards
65
154
Rush Attempts
14
36
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.23
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
23
Passing 1st downs
18
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
20%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
2
10
3rd Down Attempts
10
18
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.45
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-15
-14
Sack EPA
-0.96
-3.84
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
97
58
Penalty EPA
-9.38
-5.77
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model67.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-97
Home nfelo
1,291
Away nfelo
1,466
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.1
Home QB Adjustment
-0.9
Away QB Adjustment
+6.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-127.1
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
J. Campbell
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+6.2
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-0.9
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
32
Yards / Game
22
32
Passing Yards / Game
14
30
Rushing Yards / Game
28
25
EPA
EPA / Play
21
29
EPA / Pass
18
31
EPA / Rush
23
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
9
Interceptions / Game
16
30
Fumbles / Game
4
7
Turnover EPA / Game
24
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
25
4th Down Efficiency
30
29
RZ Efficiency
8
17
Lions Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
17
Yards / Game
26
11
Passing Yards / Game
12
27
Rushing Yards / Game
23
15
EPA
EPA / Play
30
20
EPA / Pass
29
25
EPA / Rush
25
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
5
Interceptions / Game
32
26
Fumbles / Game
13
16
Turnover EPA / Game
1
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
21
4th Down Efficiency
32
1
RZ Efficiency
24
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
3-7
SU
1-7-2
ATS
1-1-8
O/U
Lions
0-10
SU
4-6
ATS
1-1-8
O/U