WASCommanders
4-3
25
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
037
DETLions
1-5
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
13
0
12
25
Lions
0
7
7
17
31
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
275
306
Total Plays
65
74
Yards / Play
4.2
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.35
-0.17
Passing Yards
195
204
Comp/Att
21/39(54%)
26/48(54%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
4.3
EPA / Pass
-0.58
-0.20
Rushing Yards
80
102
Rush Attempts
19
25
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
19
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
14%
24%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
100%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-11.73
-6.52
Sacks
7
1
Sack Yards
-59
-10
Sack EPA
-18.52
-2.36
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
77
65
Penalty EPA
-10.67
-10.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model50.0%
Spread Pick
Commanders+3.0
Expected Value
+9.0%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-55
Home nfelo
1,349
Away nfelo
1,483
Home Field
+102.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-23.4
Home QB Adjustment
-32.3
Away QB Adjustment
-8.9
Market Regression
+21.2
Final Difference
-0.0
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
D. McNabb
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-8.9
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-32.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
19
Yards / Game
17
21
Passing Yards / Game
4
28
Rushing Yards / Game
30
24
EPA
EPA / Play
28
11
EPA / Pass
25
6
EPA / Rush
19
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
26
Interceptions / Game
21
19
Fumbles / Game
22
2
Turnover EPA / Game
9
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
19
4th Down Efficiency
12
9
RZ Efficiency
20
23
Lions Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
22
Yards / Game
15
31
Passing Yards / Game
6
31
Rushing Yards / Game
23
25
EPA
EPA / Play
20
12
EPA / Pass
19
26
EPA / Rush
17
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
5
Interceptions / Game
16
19
Fumbles / Game
9
10
Turnover EPA / Game
18
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
8
4th Down Efficiency
7
29
RZ Efficiency
2
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
4-6
SU
4-4-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Lions
1-9
SU
6-3-1
ATS
7-3
O/U