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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ lions week 8, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
4-3
25
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
37
DETLions
1-5
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
13
0
12
25
Lions
0
7
7
17
31

Spread

DET logo
-3

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
275
306
Total Plays
65
74
Yards / Play
4.2
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.35
-0.17
Passing Yards
195
204
Comp/Att
21/39(54%)
26/48(54%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
4.3
EPA / Pass
-0.58
-0.20
Rushing Yards
80
102
Rush Attempts
19
25
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
13
19
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
14%
24%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
100%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-11.73
-6.52
Sacks
7
1
Sack Yards
-59
-10
Sack EPA
-18.52
-2.36
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
77
65
Penalty EPA
-10.67
-10.64

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model50.1%
Spread Pick
WAS logo
Commanders+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+9.0%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-54
Home nfelo
1,349
Away nfelo
1,482
Home Field
+102.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-23.4
Home QB Adjustment
-32.3
Away QB Adjustment
-8.9
Market Regression
+21.3
Final Difference
0.6
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

D. McNabb headshot

D. McNabb

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-8.9
Value
Ptile
12/27
4.1
76
01/03
-3.2
30
01/09
-3.7
26
09/12
-1.9
37
09/19
6.7
90
09/26
1.4
57
10/03
-1.6
39
10/10
-1.9
38
10/17
-3.5
26
10/24
-6.1
13
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
-32.3
Value
Ptile
09/20
-4.0
24
09/27
2.5
66
10/04
-0.1
48
11/01
-5.6
16
11/08
-10.1
3
11/15
0.5
54
11/22
8.1
92
11/26
-8.3
7
12/06
-8.9
5
09/12
-3.2
28

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Lions Defense
Commanders logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
25
19
Yards / Game
17
21
Passing Yards / Game
4
28
Rushing Yards / Game
30
24

EPA

EPA / Play
28
11
EPA / Pass
25
6
EPA / Rush
19
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
26
Interceptions / Game
21
19
Fumbles / Game
22
2
Turnover EPA / Game
9
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
19
4th Down Efficiency
12
9
RZ Efficiency
20
23
Lions Offense vs Commanders Defense
Lions logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
15
22
Yards / Game
15
31
Passing Yards / Game
6
31
Rushing Yards / Game
23
25

EPA

EPA / Play
20
12
EPA / Pass
19
26
EPA / Rush
17
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
5
Interceptions / Game
16
19
Fumbles / Game
9
10
Turnover EPA / Game
18
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
8
4th Down Efficiency
7
29
RZ Efficiency
2
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

4-6
SU
4-4-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/21
-33
L
L
O
12/27
-17
L
L
U
01/03
-3
L
P
O
09/12
6
W
W
U
09/19
-3
L
L
O
09/26
-14
L
L
O
10/03
5
W
W
U
10/10
3
W
W
U
10/17
-3
L
P
O
10/24
3
W
W
U
DET logo

Lions

1-9
SU
6-3-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/13
-45
L
L
O
12/20
-7
L
W
O
12/27
-14
L
P
U
01/03
-14
L
L
O
09/12
-5
L
W
U
09/19
-3
L
W
O
09/26
-14
L
L
U
10/03
-2
L
W
O
10/10
38
W
W
O
10/17
-8
L
W
O