WASCommanders
1-0
18
TBD
Lambeau Field
65°F
7 mph
27
GBPackers
1-0
TBD
Lambeau Field
65°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
3
0
15
18
Packers
7
7
3
10
27
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
232
404
Total Plays
65
63
Yards / Play
3.6
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.09
+0.06
Passing Yards
179
269
Comp/Att
24/42(57%)
19/31(61%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
8.7
EPA / Pass
-0.22
+0.21
Rushing Yards
51
135
Rush Attempts
19
30
Yards / Rush
2.7
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.14
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
22
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
31%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-21
-23
Sack EPA
-6.06
-3.14
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
30
77
Penalty EPA
-3.38
-12.29
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+77
Home nfelo
1,596
Away nfelo
1,552
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
-11.8
Home QB Adjustment
-1.7
Away QB Adjustment
+10.1
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Daniels
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.1
J. Love
Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
-1.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
13
Yards / Game
12
8
Passing Yards / Game
18
21
Rushing Yards / Game
2
2
EPA
EPA / Play
7
19
EPA / Pass
20
19
EPA / Rush
2
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
17
Interceptions / Game
2
17
Fumbles / Game
7
25
Turnover EPA / Game
27
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
4
4th Down Efficiency
14
18
RZ Efficiency
3
15
Packers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
18
Yards / Game
11
24
Passing Yards / Game
15
30
Rushing Yards / Game
14
14
EPA
EPA / Play
6
22
EPA / Pass
2
27
EPA / Rush
14
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
11
Interceptions / Game
2
24
Fumbles / Game
7
25
Turnover EPA / Game
26
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
6
4th Down Efficiency
10
15
RZ Efficiency
5
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Packers
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U