WASCommanders
2-2
17
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
70°F
7 mph
20
CARPanthers
0-3
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
70°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
7
3
7
0
17
Panthers
0
0
7
11
18
Spread
+5
Total
UNDER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
198
250
Total Plays
52
61
Yards / Play
3.8
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.09
Passing Yards
124
164
Comp/Att
17/23(74%)
16/26(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.19
-0.07
Rushing Yards
74
86
Rush Attempts
24
32
Yards / Rush
3.1
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.41
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
16
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
22%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
9
12
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-6.68
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-21
-19
Sack EPA
-6.69
-4.80
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
20
27
Penalty EPA
-2.30
-4.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+105
Home nfelo
1,491
Away nfelo
1,450
Home Field
+80.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-15.9
Home QB Adjustment
-13.9
Away QB Adjustment
+2.1
Market Regression
+18.6
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
J. Campbell
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
J. Delhomme
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-13.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
9
Yards / Game
22
8
Passing Yards / Game
14
3
Rushing Yards / Game
28
23
EPA
EPA / Play
21
6
EPA / Pass
18
4
EPA / Rush
23
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
18
Interceptions / Game
16
6
Fumbles / Game
4
2
Turnover EPA / Game
24
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
6
4th Down Efficiency
30
21
RZ Efficiency
8
12
Panthers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
17
Yards / Game
19
11
Passing Yards / Game
22
27
Rushing Yards / Game
3
15
EPA
EPA / Play
22
20
EPA / Pass
22
25
EPA / Rush
8
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
5
Interceptions / Game
28
26
Fumbles / Game
13
16
Turnover EPA / Game
9
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
21
4th Down Efficiency
21
1
RZ Efficiency
18
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
4-6
SU
1-7-2
ATS
1-3-6
O/U
Panthers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
2-1-7
O/U