WASCommanders
3-4
10
TBD
Gillette Stadium
54°F
12 mph
27
NEPatriots
7-0
TBD
Gillette Stadium
54°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
3
0
7
10
Patriots
14
3
3
7
27
Spread
-14
Total
UNDER
51.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
250
460
Total Plays
56
76
Yards / Play
4.5
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.24
+0.07
Passing Yards
213
--
Comp/Att
22/40(55%)
26/39(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.22
Rushing Yards
37
161
Rush Attempts
15
37
Yards / Rush
2.5
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.51
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
27
Passing 1st downs
12
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
7
9
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.86
-9.83
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-4
--
Sack EPA
-1.91
--
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
27
43
Penalty EPA
-4.54
-5.41
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+316
Home nfelo
1,679
Away nfelo
1,408
Home Field
+35.3
Base HFA
+61.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.1
Surface Adj
+21.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+10.7
Home QB Adjustment
+30.0
Away QB Adjustment
+19.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+19.4
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+30.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Commanders Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
8
Yards / Game
15
8
Passing Yards / Game
7
28
Rushing Yards / Game
20
10
EPA
EPA / Play
13
10
EPA / Pass
6
12
EPA / Rush
28
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
14
Interceptions / Game
9
24
Fumbles / Game
13
11
Turnover EPA / Game
19
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
16
4th Down Efficiency
15
12
RZ Efficiency
11
14
Patriots Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
19
Yards / Game
9
26
Passing Yards / Game
5
11
Rushing Yards / Game
32
26
EPA
EPA / Play
1
20
EPA / Pass
4
20
EPA / Rush
6
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
26
Interceptions / Game
2
25
Fumbles / Game
2
1
Turnover EPA / Game
31
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
10
4th Down Efficiency
7
22
RZ Efficiency
4
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Commanders
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Patriots
10-0
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-3-1
O/U