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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ patriots week 9, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
3-4
10
TBD
Gillette Stadium
54°F
12 mph
27
NEPatriots
7-0
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
54°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
3
0
7
10
Patriots
14
3
3
7
27

Spread

NE logo
-14

Total

UNDER
51.5

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
250
460
Total Plays
56
76
Yards / Play
4.5
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.24
+0.07
Passing Yards
213
--
Comp/Att
22/40(55%)
26/39(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.22
Rushing Yards
37
161
Rush Attempts
15
37
Yards / Rush
2.5
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.51
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
16
27
Passing 1st downs
12
15
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
7
9
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.86
-9.83
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-4
--
Sack EPA
-1.91
--
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
27
43
Penalty EPA
-4.54
-5.41

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0

Win Probability

Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+316
Home nfelo
1,679
Away nfelo
1,408
Home Field
+35.3
Base HFA
+61.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.1
Surface Adj
+21.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+10.7
Home QB Adjustment
+30.0
Away QB Adjustment
+19.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0

Quarterbacks

K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+19.4
Value
Ptile
10/06
3.6
75
10/12
-1.1
42
10/19
-5.2
19
09/13
-3.6
25
09/20
2.1
66
09/24
-1.2
42
10/04
5.8
86
10/11
-3.2
28
10/18
-3.8
23
10/25
12.6
99
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+30.0
Value
Ptile
01/10
7.6
90
01/18
3.7
75
02/01
8.6
93
09/10
7.3
92
09/20
10.6
97
09/27
7.8
93
10/11
2.0
65
10/18
2.9
72
10/25
7.6
93
10/29
8.6
95

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Patriots Defense
Commanders logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
11
8
Yards / Game
15
8
Passing Yards / Game
7
28
Rushing Yards / Game
20
10

EPA

EPA / Play
13
10
EPA / Pass
6
12
EPA / Rush
28
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
14
Interceptions / Game
9
24
Fumbles / Game
13
11
Turnover EPA / Game
19
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
16
4th Down Efficiency
15
12
RZ Efficiency
11
14
Patriots Offense vs Commanders Defense
Patriots logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
3
19
Yards / Game
9
26
Passing Yards / Game
5
11
Rushing Yards / Game
32
26

EPA

EPA / Play
1
20
EPA / Pass
4
20
EPA / Rush
6
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
26
Interceptions / Game
2
25
Fumbles / Game
2
1
Turnover EPA / Game
31
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
10
4th Down Efficiency
7
22
RZ Efficiency
4
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/14
-11
L
L
U
12/20
3
W
W
P
12/28
-27
L
L
O
09/13
-7
L
L
U
09/20
14
W
W
U
09/24
-11
L
L
O
10/04
3
W
W
U
10/11
-6
L
W
U
10/18
-14
L
L
O
10/25
1
W
L
O
NE logo

Patriots

10-0
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/10
4
W
L
O
01/18
38
W
W
P
02/01
4
W
W
O
09/10
7
W
L
U
09/20
8
W
W
O
09/27
34
W
W
O
10/11
24
W
W
U
10/18
7
W
L
O
10/25
7
W
P
O
10/29
29
W
W
U